politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2024.02.06politscience-1078Research ArticleКОНТЕКСТГлобальные трансформации мир-системы и контуры нового мирового порядкаGlobal transformations of the World System and contours of a new world orderГрининЛ. Е.GrininL. E.

Гринин Леонид Ефимович, доктор философских наук, главный научный сотрудник Центра изучения стабильности и рисков; ведущий научный сотрудник

Москва

Grinin Leonid

Moscow

leonid.grinin@gmail.comГрининА. Л.GrininA. L.

Гринин Антон Леонидович, кандидат биологических наук, научный сотрудник Факультета глобальных процессов; старший научный сотрудник Центра изучения стабильности и рисков

Москва

Grinin Anton

Moscow

algrinin@gmail.comКоротаевА. В.KorotayevA. V.

Коротаев Андрей Витальевич, доктор исторических наук, директор Центра изучения стабильности и рисков; ведущий научный сотрудник; профессор Факультета глобальных процессов

Москва

Korotayev Andrey

Moscow

akorotayev@gmail.comНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Институт востоковедения РАНРоссияHSE University; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationМосковский государственный университет им. М. В. Ломоносова; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияLomonosov Moscow State University; HSE UniversityRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Институт востоковедения РАН; Московский государственный университет им. М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияHSE University; Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation20242605202402Меняющиеся мировые порядки124150Copyright © Гринин Л.Е., Гринин А.Л., Коротаев А.В., 20242024Гринин Л.Е., Гринин А.Л., Коротаев А.В.Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotayev A.V.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1078

В статье рассматриваются процессы трансформации Мир-Системы, находящие выражение в крупных, фактически стадиальных изменениях. Мир-Система находится в фазе, предшествующей переходу в новое качественное состояние, с изменением баланса сил в самых разных аспектах и параметрах. В рамках анализа, проведенного в статье, отмечается, что такие изменения происходят редко, раз в несколько десятков лет, и периоды глубоких изменений могут длиться долго. Авторы предполагают, что период реконфигурации Мир-Системы и формирование нового мирового порядка займёт не менее полутора-двух десятилетий, а, возможно, и больше. При этом авторы приходят к выводу, что это будет турбулентный период с дальнейшим обострением противоречий и возможным переходом к вооруженным столкновениям. Важная идея статьи – эти коренные трансформации происходят в результате не только изменения международных отношений и баланса сил в военно-технологическом потенциале стран и геополитического расклада в целом (что обязательно), но и накопления крупных качественных изменений практически во всех сферах: от демографической до культурной, от технологической до идеологической. В статье анализируется динамика таких изменений за последние десятилетия.

The article examines the processes of transformation of the World System, which are expressed in large, fundamental changes. The World System is in a phase preceding its transition into a new qualitative state, with a change in the balance of power in a variety of aspects and parameters. The growing power of globalism and the globalist world order has been discussed. As a part of the analysis carried out in the article, it is noted that the ongoing changes in (of) the World System occur rarely, once every few decades, and periods of profound changes can last for a long time. The authors suggest that the period of reconfiguration of the World System and the formation of a new world order will take at least one and a half to two decades, and possibly more. At the same time, the authors argue it is very likely that this will be a very turbulent period, with a further aggravation of contradictions and their possible transition to armed conflicts. The authors claim that such fundamental transformations occur as a result of not only changes in international relations and reconfigurations in the balance of power in the military-technological potentials of countries and the geopolitical alignment in general (which is necessary), but also of the accumulation of major qualitative changes in almost all areas: from demographic to cultural; from technological to ideological. The article analyzes and demonstrates the dynamics of such changes over the past decades.  

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.