politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2024.02.14politscience-1086Research ArticleПЕРВАЯ СТЕПЕНЬАморфная «жесткая сила»? Подходы к реконцептуализации и эмпирическому измерению военной мощи в мировой политикеAmorphous “hard power”? Approaches to the reconceptualization and empirical measurement of military power in international relationsМальцевА. М.MaltsevA. M.

Мальцев Артем Михайлович, аспирант, преподаватель

Москва

Maltsev Artem

Moscow

amalcev@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation20242705202402Меняющиеся мировые порядки300325Copyright © Мальцев А.М., 20242024Мальцев А.М.Maltsev A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1086

В статье рассмотрены концептуальные и методологические трудности эмпирического измерения военного потенциала государств в мировой политике. Современная теория международных отношений и политическая наука, как правило, трактуют понятие «военная сила» как диспозиционную или эпизодическую характеристику. В первом случае рассматриваются ресурсы и потенциалы, доступные странам для осуществления силового принуждения (или отпора внешнему давлению). Во втором случае военная сила актуализируется исключительно в виде непосредственного применения в вооруженных конфликтах. В первой части статьи рассматриваются концептуальные достоинства и недостатки этих подходов, а также имеющиеся проблемы операционализации военной мощи. Как показано в статье, наибольшее внимание к изучению роли военной силы в мировой политике уделяется в рамках реалистского подхода в теории международных отношений, однако в силу методологических ограничений проблема оценки и ранжирования военных потенциалов стран в настоящее время остается нерешенной. Во второй части рассматривается опыт изучения индикаторов военной мощи государств в мировой политике. Основной вывод – существующие разработки по количественной оценке военных потенциалов все последние десятилетия оперируют исключительно прокси-переменными в виде объема оборонных расходов в постоянных долларах США и численности вооруженных сил. В заключительной части статьи рассматриваются перспективные индикаторы военной мощи как диспозиционного или эпизодического явления.

The article focuses on the conceptual and methodological difficulties of empirical assessment of the states’ military capabilities. Contemporary IR theory and political science mostly interpret military power as a dispositional or episodic characteristic. The first approach comprises the estimation of resources and material capabilities available to a state to violently coerce (or resist coercion) in international politics. The second approach suggests that military power only actualizes itself through direct usage in armed conflicts. The article provides a detailed examination of the conceptual and empirical advantages and limitations of both approaches. As the literature review demonstrates, while realist IR literature piques a lot of attention to the distribution of military power in the international system, it struggles to resolve methodological difficulties of empirical assessment and, therefore, actual ranking of military capabilities of states. The second part of the article explores empirical attempts to measure military power in IR. The author concludes that existing solutions are limited to proxy indicators such as defense expenditures and military personnel numbers. The final part of the article suggests promising indicators of military power as a dispositional or episodic phenomenon.

военная мощьмеждународное влияниереализмранжирование потенциалов государстввоенное строительствооборонные расходывооружения и военная техникаmilitary powerinternational influencerealismranking of state capabilitiesdefense economicsdefense spendingweapons and military equipmentСтатья подготовлена в рамках консорциума МГИМО МИД России и НИУ ВШЭ из средств гранта на реализацию программы стратегического академического лидерства «Приоритет-2030».The article was prepared within the consortium of MGIMO University and HSE University and funded by the grant for the implementation of the Priority 2030 Strategic Academic Leadership Program.ReferencesАхременко А.С., Миронюк М.Г. Динамика потенциалов международного влияния государств (по материалам проекта «Политический атлас современности») // Общественные науки и современность. – 2019. – № 1. – С. 39–59. – DOI: http://doi.org/10.31857/S086904990003941-7Akhremenko A.S., Mironyuk M.G. 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.