politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2024.03.11politscience-1125Research ArticleПЕРВАЯ СТЕПЕНЬВлияние программных трансформаций «зеленых» партий на участие в правительственных коалициях в парламентских странах Западной и Северной ЕвропыInfluence of program transformations of green parties on participation in government coalitions in Western and Northern European countriesМихеевА. К.MikheevA. K.

Михеев Андрей Константинович, младший научный сотрудник Института гуманитарных исследований; аспирант, ассистент кафедры политических наук

Пермь

Mikheev Andrey

Perm

andreymikheev17@gmail.comПермский федеральный исследовательский центр Уральского отделения РАН; Пермский государственный национальный исследовательский университетРоссияPerm Federal Research Center, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Perm State UniversityRussian Federation20243008202403Парламентаризм в современном мире261279Copyright © Михеев А.К., 20242024Михеев А.К.Mikheev A.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1125

Возникшие в 1980-е годы как разновидность «нишевых» партий, «зеленые» в настоящее время превратились в значимых политических игроков в странах Западной и Северной Европы. Они увеличивают свое представительство в национальных парламентах и достаточно часто участвуют в коалиционных правительствах. Для увеличения шансов на вхождение в правительство у них возникает стимул расширять политическую повестку для привлечения новых избирателей. В этой статье ставится вопрос, каким образом программные трансформации «зеленых» влияют на их участие в правительственных коалициях в странах Западной и Северной Европы. Исследование проведено на основе базы данных Manifesto Project Main Dataset методом логистического регрессионного анализа. Наряду с трансформацией программ «зеленых» тестируются факторы, вытекающие из классических теорий формирования правительственных коалиций: политический вес партии в национальном парламенте и идеологическая близость партнеров по коалиции. Проведенное исследование, подтверждая значимость этих факторов, позволяет сделать вывод, что расширение «зелеными» политической повестки, т.е. снижение доли вопросов окружающей среды в предвыборной программе по сравнению с предыдущим электоральным циклом, повышает их шансы на вхождение в правительственную коалицию. Таким образом, «зеленые» демонстрируют прагматизм, адаптируясь к политической повестке потенциальных партнеров по коалиции.

Emerged in the 1980 s as a type of «niche» party, the Greens have now become significant political players in Western and Northern Europe. They are increasing their representation in national parliaments and quite often participate in coalition governments. To increase their chances of entering government, they have an incentive to broaden their political agenda to attract new voters. This article asks how the program transformation of the Greens affects their participation in government coalitions in Western and Northern European countries. The study is based on the Manifesto Project Main Dataset and is conducted by logistic regression analysis. Along with the transformation of the Greens' programs, the following factors derived from the classical theories of government coalition formation are tested: the political weight of the party in the national parliament and the ideological proximity of coalition partners. By confirming the significance of these factors, the study allows us to conclude that the expansion of the Greens' political agenda, i.e. the reduction of the share of environmental issues in the electoral program compared to the previous electoral cycle, increases their chances of being included in the government coalition. Thus, the Greens demonstrate pragmatism by adapting to the political agenda of potential coalition partners.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.