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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">politscience</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Политическая наука</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Political science</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1998-1775</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ИНИОН РАН</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31249/poln/2024.04.10</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">politscience-1129</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РЕТРОСПЕКТИВА</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Динамика ментальных мировоззренческих моделей: концепция и метод сценарного прогнозирования</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Dynamics of mental worldview models: concept and method of scenario forecasting</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2689-8387</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Подшибякина</surname><given-names>Т. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Podshibyakina</surname><given-names>T. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Подшибякина Татьяна Александровна, доктор политических наук, доцент, профессор кафедры теоретической и прикладной политологии</p><p>Ростов-на-Дону </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Podshibyakina Tatyana A.</p><p>Rostov-on-Don </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">tan5@bk.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Южный федеральный университет<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Southern Federal University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2024</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>13</day><month>12</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>4</issue><issue-title>Массовая культура и политика</issue-title><fpage>241</fpage><lpage>261</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Подшибякина Т.А., 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Подшибякина Т.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Podshibyakina T.A.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1129">https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1129</self-uri><abstract><p>Статья посвящена разработке концепции динамики ментальных мировоззренческих моделей и предложению соответствующего ей прогнозного метода. Дан краткий обзор возникновения понятия мировоззрения и проанализированы основные концепции, описывающие закономерности динамических состояний ментальных моделей с позиций различных теоретических подходов. Предложена концепция динамики мировоззренческих ментальных моделей, методологической основой которой послужила репрезентативная теория мышления, используемая в когнитивной философии и когнитивной психологии. Для исследования динамических состояний мировоззренческих моделей потребовалось также обосновать концепцию когнитивно-ценностного механизма мировоззренческих моделей, объясняющую способы познания мира и взаимодействия сознания с социальной средой. Ценностные элементы структуры мировоззренческих моделей: идеологические установки, убеждения, ценности – определяют содержание взглядов на мир. Когнитивные элементы, к которым относятся концепты, идеологемы, нарративы, в ментальных моделях определяют схемы познания. Показано, как в когнитивном процессе, связывающем сознание с социальной средой, участвуют когниции – познавательные элементы или ментальные процессы обработки информации: рецепция (восприятие), знания, их репрезентация (представление), память. Для построения сценариев была использована концепция динамики мировоззренческих ментальных моделей. Динамика ментальных мировоззренческих моделей представляет собой процесс функционального взаимодействия ценностных и когнитивных элементов моделей, который может быть выражен и зафиксирован через набор переменных, определяющих характер, направление и темпы динамических процессов. В эмпирической части исследования описан процесс динамики мировоззренческих моделей россиян на примере трех сценариев: статус-кво, «цивилизационного выбора» и «экзистенциального выбора». Даны практические рекомендации по формированию политических стратегий управления мировоззренческими процессами.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article is devoted to the development of the concept of the dynamics of mental worldview models and the proposal of a corresponding forecasting method. A brief overview of the emergence of the concept of worldview is given and the main concepts describing the patterns of dynamic states of mental models from the standpoint of various theoretical approaches are analyzed. The concept of the dynamics of worldview mental models is proposed, its methodological basis is the representative theory of thinking used in cognitive philosophy and cognitive psychology. To study the dynamic states of worldview models, it was also necessary to substantiate the concept of the cognitive-value mechanism of worldview models, explaining the ways of cognition of the world and the interaction of consciousness with the social environment. Value elements of the structure of worldview models – ideological attitudes, beliefs, values – determine the content of views on the world. Cognitive elements, including concepts, ideologemes, narratives, in mental models determine the schemes of cognition. It is shown how cognitions – cognitive elements, or mental processes of information processing: reception (perception), knowledge, their representation (idea), memory – act in the cognitive process linking consciousness with the social environment. The concept of the dynamics of ideological mental models was used to build scenarios. The dynamics of mental ideological models is a process of functional interaction of value and cognitive elements of models, which can be expressed and recorded through a set of variables that determine the nature, direction and pace of dynamic processes. The empirical part of the study describes the process of the dynamics of ideological models of Russians using three scenarios as an example: the status quo, the “civilizational choice” and the “existential choice”. Practical recommendations for the formation of political strategies for managing ideological processes are given.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>мировоззрение</kwd><kwd>ментальные модели</kwd><kwd>динамика ментальных моделей</kwd><kwd>когнитивно-ценностный механизм ментальных моделей</kwd><kwd>сценарии</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>worldview</kwd><kwd>mental models</kwd><kwd>dynamics of mental models</kwd><kwd>cognitivevalue mechanism of mental models</kwd><kwd>scenarios</kwd><kwd>forecasting</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group xml:lang="ru"><funding-statement>Статья подготовлена при поддержке Министерства науки и высшего образования РФ (Государственное задание в сфере научной деятельности, проект № FENW-2023-0059, тема: «Когнитивно-ценностная структура мировоззренческих моделей современного россиянина: поколенческие и региональные различия»).</funding-statement></funding-group><funding-group xml:lang="en"><funding-statement>The article was prepared with the support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (State assignment in the field of scientific activity, project No. FENW-2023-0059, topic: “Cognitive and value structure of worldview models of a modern Russian: generational and regional differences”).</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Гегель Г.В.Ф. 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