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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">politscience</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Политическая наука</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Political science</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1998-1775</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ИНИОН РАН</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31249/poln/2025.01.03</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">politscience-1132</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИДЕИ И ПРАКТИКА</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Моделирование формирования общественного восприятия и политического доверия в условиях обязательности: кейс цифровых государственных услуг</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Modeling public perception and political trust in mandatory conditions: the case of digital public services</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8002-7307</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ахременко</surname><given-names>А. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Akhremenko</surname><given-names>A. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ахременко Андрей Сергеевич, доктор политических наук, профессор Департамента политики и управления Факультета социальных наук</p><p>Москва </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Akhremenko Andrei </p><p>Moscow </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">aakhremenko@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Филиппов</surname><given-names>И. Б.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Philippov</surname><given-names>I. B.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Филиппов Илья Борисович, кандидат политических наук, научный сотрудник Факультета социальных наук</p><p>Москва </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Philippov Ilya </p><p>Moscow </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ibfilippov@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сычев</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sychev</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сычев Владислав Витальевич, стажер-исследователь Научно-учебной лаборатории политико-психологических исследований</p><p>Москва </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sychev Vladislav </p><p>Moscow </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vvsychev@edu.hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Егоров</surname><given-names>В. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Egorov</surname><given-names>V. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Егоров Вадим Юрьевич, аспирант, стажер-исследователь международной лаборатории цифровой трансформации в государственном управлении</p><p>Москва </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Egorov Vadim </p><p>Moscow  </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">vyuegorov@edu.hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Национальный исследовательский университет "Высшая школа экономики"</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>HSE University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>01</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><issue-title>Политическое моделирование и прогнозирование</issue-title><fpage>77</fpage><lpage>102</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Ахременко А.С., Филиппов И.Б., Сычев В.В., Егоров В.Ю., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Ахременко А.С., Филиппов И.Б., Сычев В.В., Егоров В.Ю.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Akhremenko A.S., Philippov I.B., Sychev V.V., Egorov V.Y.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1132">https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1132</self-uri><abstract><p>В современной научной литературе пристальное внимание уделяется феномену адаптации технологий и внедрению инноваций в сферу политики и государственного управления. В настоящее время существует большое количество исследований, центральным объектом которых выступает такое активно развивающееся явление, как государственные цифровые услуги. Несмотря на пеструю палитру из теоретических подходов, устоявшейся методологической традиции моделирования восприятия цифровых услуг пока не сложилось. К тому же многие исследования основаны на предпосылке, что действия пользователя являются добровольными. Мы же исходим из того, что в условиях отсутствия добровольности классическая для моделирования форма принятия решения – «да или нет», «действовать или не действовать» – во многом теряет смысл. Обязательность порождает ряд важных следствий, для части из которых требуются новые модельные решения.Чтобы восполнить этот пробел, в этой работе мы представляем вычислительную модель формирования отношения к государственным цифровым услугам в условиях обязательности. Причиной выбора этой области является величина принудительной власти государства и его возможность применить эту власть к самому широкому кругу социальных групп.Основными свойствами агентов в модели являются доверие к правительству и цифровые навыки. Государственные цифровые услуги различаются по техническим требованиям и, что особенно важно, по сенситивности – объему прав и обязанностей пользователей, которые затрагивает услуга, и объему персональных данных, которые она требует. Модель показывает, как эти переменные по-разному взаимодействуют в условиях добровольного и обязательного использования сервиса.Вычислительные эксперименты показали, что условия обязательности приводят к поляризации отношения пользователей, когда предоставляемая услуга является сенситивной. Поляризация усиливается, когда неудовлетворенность связанными с ней рисками влияет на уровень доверия к правительству. Обязательность также служит «катализатором» процессов формирования аттитюда: в условиях обязательности увеличивается как масштаб изменений, так и влияние других факторов (в первую очередь, сенситивности).</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Contemporary academic literature has focused on technology adaptation and innovation in politics and public administration. At present, there is a large number of studies focusing on actively developing phenomenon as public digital services. Despite the diverse range of theoretical approaches, there is no established methodological tradition of modelling perception of digital services. In addition, many studies are based on the premise that the user’s actions are voluntary. We assume that in the absence of voluntariness, the classical modelling form of decision-making – ‘yes or no’, ‘to act or not to act’ – loses much of its meaning. Mandatory environment gives rise to a number of important consequences, some of which require new modelling solutions.</p><p>To fill this gap, the author presents in this paper a computational model of the formation of attitudes towards public digital services under the mandatory conditions. The reason behind the choice of this area is the magnitude of the coercive power of the state and its ability to apply it to the widest range of social groups.</p><p>The main properties of agents in the model are trust in government and digital skills. Public services differ in technical requirements and, most importantly, in sensitivity – the scope of users’ rights and obligations that the service affects, and the volume of personal data it requires. The model shows how these variables interact under the conditions of voluntary and mandatory service use.</p><p>Computational experiments demonstrated that mandatory conditions give rise to a polarization of users’ attitudes when the service provided is sensitive. The polarization is intensifying when dissatisfaction with the associated risks affects the level of trust in government. Involuntariness also serves as a ‘catalyst’ for the attitude formation processes: in its presence, both the scale of changes and the leverage of other factors (sensitivity in the first place) increase.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>агентно-ориентированная модель</kwd><kwd>математическая модель</kwd><kwd>доверие к государству</kwd><kwd>политическое доверие</kwd><kwd>обязательность</kwd><kwd>государственные услуги</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>agent-based model</kwd><kwd>mathematical model</kwd><kwd>trust in the government</kwd><kwd>political trust</kwd><kwd>mandatory conditions</kwd><kwd>public services</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование проведено при поддержке Программы фундаментальных исследований Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики»</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ахременко А.С., Петров А.П., Жеглов С.А. 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