politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2025.01.04politscience-1140Research ArticleИДЕИ И ПРАКТИКАПробка или кран? Регрессионное моделирование эффектов отключения интернета на протестную динамикуA cork or a faucet? Modelling effects of internet shutdowns on protest dynamics through regression analysisБеленковВ. Е.BelenkovV. E.

Беленков Вадим Евгеньевич, преподаватель, младший научный сотрудник Департамента политики и управления

Москва 

Belenkov Vadim 

Moscow 

vbelenkov@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1022-6375СедашовЕ. А.SedashovE. A.

Седашов Евгений Александрович, доцент, старший научный сотрудник Департамента политики и управления

Москва 

Sedashov Evgeny 

Moscow 

esedashov@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation20252801202501Политическое моделирование и прогнозирование103119Copyright © Беленков В.Е., Седашов Е.А., 20252025Беленков В.Е., Седашов Е.А.Belenkov V.E., Sedashov E.A.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1140

Влияние онлайн-коммуникаций на динамику протестной активности является одной из центральных тем современных исследований в области политической коммуникации. Роль интернета в протестной мобилизации продолжает оставаться высокой, и власти разных стран используют широкий репертуар стратегий для снижения эффективности интернета как канала коммуникации между протестующими.

В данной статье анализируются эффекты отключений интернета на динамику протестной активности. В конкретном географическом районе это выглядит наиболее простым способом снижения потенциала протестной мобилизации. Эффективность данной стратегии тем не менее представляется неочевидной и может зависеть как от характеристик конкретной протестной кампании, так и от структурных параметров самой онлайн-коммуникации. Используя данные об отключениях интернета и протестных эпизодах в Индии, авторы настоящей статьи дают эмпирическую оценку влияния отключений интернета на динамику протестной активности. В качестве основного аналитического инструмента используются регрессионные модели для счетных зависимых переменных.

Результаты регрессионного моделирования обозначают достаточно интересную картину. В моделях, где достигается статистическая значимость, отключения интернета ведут к росту, а не к снижению количества протестов, что может вести к непредвиденному усилению протестной мобилизации. Возможна и несколько другая интерпретация полученных результатов: отключения могут вести к большему количеству более мелких протестных эпизодов, при этом снижая общее количество участников протеста.

The influence of online communications on the dynamics of protest activity holds one of the central places in modern political communication research. Internet continues to play an important role in protest mobilization, and authorities of different countries employ a broad repertoire of strategies aimed at reducing its effectiveness as a protesters’ communication channel.This paper aims to evaluate whether internet shutdowns reduce or increase protest activity in the short term. Recent theoretical and empirical accounts provide conflicting evidence on the matter, and we attempt to resolve some of these debates. Relying on fine-grained data on internet shutdowns and protest episodes from Indian districts in 2016–2022, the authors model the effects of shutdowns at the district i and day t on the expected number of protest episodes at the same district and day t + 1 by employing negative binomial regression.The findings provide compelling evidence that shutdowns increase the number of protest events in a district, casting doubt on shutdowns’ potential to reduce protest activity. Nonetheless, the authors also encourage researchers to take caution in interpreting these findings, as the authors don’t have the data on the actual protest attendance. The effects of shutdowns might be more nuanced, as they may lead to a greater number of smaller protest episodes and lower overall participation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.