politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2025.01.05politscience-1154Research ArticleРАКУРСЫПолитический профайлинг: прикладной поведенческий анализ в политикеPolitical profiling: applied behavioral analysis in politicshttps://orcid.org/0009-0001-5500-7213КуликА. В.KulikA.

Кулик Анна Валерьевна, директор 

Москва 

Kulik Anna, Director 

kulik@srccs.suАНО ДПО «Научно-исследовательский Центр корпоративной безопасности»РоссияANO Scientific Research Center for Corporate SecurityRussian Federation20252801202501Политическое моделирование и прогнозирование120137Copyright © Кулик А.В., 20252025Кулик А.В.Kulik A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1154

Статья посвящена исследованию отдельных методов политического профайлинга как комплексного инструмента анализа поведения политических акторов в современных условиях. Рассматривается эволюция данного направления от классического психологического профилирования политических лидеров до современной междисциплинарной методологии, интегрирующей методы психологии, политологии и стратегического анализа. Анализируются ключевые компоненты политического профайлинга, включая различные методологические подходы, использование широкого спектра первичных данных и применение комплексных моделей анализа. Особое внимание уделяется перспективам развития политического профайлинга с учетом математического моделирования и рефлексивного подхода, сформулированного В.А. Лефевром. Обсуждаются методологические вызовы и этические дилеммы в применении данного инструментария, проблемы валидности используемых данных и их интерпретации. Затрагивается вопрос адаптации методов политического профайлинга для использования в других сферах жизнедеятельности человека. Исследование предпринимает попытку систематизации подходов к политическому профайлингу, обобщая отдельные существующие методы анализа и прогнозирования поведения политических субъектов.

The article is devoted to the study of individual methods of political profiling as a comprehensive tool for analyzing the behavior of political actors in modern conditions. The evolution of this direction from classical psychological profiling of political leaders to modern interdisciplinary methodology integrating methods of psychology, political science and strategic analysis is considered. The key components of political profiling are analyzed, including various methodological approaches, the use of a wide range of primary data and the use of complex analysis models. Special attention is paid to the prospects for the development of political profiling, taking into account mathematical modeling and the reflexive approach formulated by V.A. Lefevre. Methodological challenges and ethical dilemmas in the application of this toolkit, problems of validity of the data used and their interpretation are discussed. The issue of adapting the methods of political profiling for use in other spheres of human activity is touched upon. The study attempts to systematize approaches to political profiling, summarizing some existing methods of analyzing and predicting the behavior of political actors.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.