politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2025.03.04politscience-1206Research ArticleРАКУРСЫ«Уступать нельзя подавлять»: выбор государством политики в условиях угрозы сецессии“Concede not suppress”: the state’s choice of policy in the face of the threat of secessionПановП. В.PanovP. V.

Панов Петр Вячеславович, доктор политических наук, главный научный сотрудник отдела по исследованию политических институтов и процессовПермь

Panov PetrPerm

panov.petr@gmail.comПермский федеральный исследовательский центр УрО РАН, Институт гуманитарных исследований УрО РАНРоссияPerm Research Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of ScienceRussian Federation20251509202503Многоуровневая политика и политико-территориальная гетерогенность84106Copyright © Панов П.В., 20252025Панов П.В.Panov P.V.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1206

Когда кросстерриториальная гетерогенность, свойственная современным государствам, приобретает политическое значение, это порождает политико-территориальные конфликты, движения за самоопределение (self-determination movement – SDM) и сопровождается потенциальной угрозой сецес- сии. Государство в условиях угрозы сецессии может игнорировать требования SDM либо подавлять его или / и проводить реформы-уступки. Эмпирическое исследование воздействия политики государства и других факторов на угрозу сецессии, проведенное методом логистической регрессии на материале 171 политически значимых SDM, которые действовали в 77 странах в период с 1991 по 2020 гг., подтверждает теоретические представления, согласно которым на вероятность сильной угрозы сецессии позитивно влияют ресурсы, имеющиеся у SDM для осуществления политической мобилизации: этническая идентичность территории и потерянная государственность, благоприятное географическое положение, доступ к власти на региональном уровне, особенно в условиях, когда регион имеет автономию. Вместе с тем существенный эффект имеет и политика государ- ства. В целом реализация государством реформ-уступок снижает вероятность сильной угрозы сецессии, однако, если они сопровождаются подавлением движения со стороны государства, это дает противоположный эффект: соотношение шансов в пользу того, что угроза сецессии будет сильной, возрастает в несколько раз.

When cross-territorial heterogeneity, typical of modern states, acquire political significance, this gives rise to political-territorial conflicts, self-determination movements (SDM) and may be accompanied by the threat of secession. In the context of a threat of secession, the state can ignore the demands of the SDM or suppress it or / and carry out reforms-concessions. The study of the impact of state policy and some other factors on the threat of secession, carried out by logistic regression on the empirical data of 171 politically significant SDMs in 77 countries from 1991 to 2020, confirms theoretical expectations that the likelihood of a strong threat of secession is positively influenced by the resources that SDMs have for political mobilization: ethnic identity of the territory and lost statehood, favorable geographical location, access to power at the regional level, especially in autonomous regions. At the same time, state policy also has a significant effect. In general, the implementation of reforms- concessions reduces the likelihood of a strong threat of secession, but if such reforms are accompanied by suppression of the movement by the state, this has the opposite effect: odds ratio in favor to strong threat of secession increases several times.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.