politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2026.01.05politscience-1276Research ArticleКОНТЕКСТПосле выборов: сценарии формирования правящих коалицийAfter the elections: scenarios of forming government coalitionshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0136-8785МакаренкоБ. И.MakarenkoB. I.

Макаренко Борис Игоревич - кандидат политических наук, профессор департамента политики и управления факультета социальных наук, НИУ «ВШЭ»; президент, Фонд «Центр политических технологий».

Москва

ResearcherID L-3134-2015, Scopus AuthorID 54944695000

Boris I. Makarenko.

Moscow

bmakarenko@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Фонд «Центр политических технологий»РоссияHSE University; Center for Political Technologies FoundationRussian Federation20261503202601Изменения в электоральном ландшафте: структурные и институциональные факторы85111Copyright © Макаренко Б.И., 20262026Макаренко Б.И.Makarenko B.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1276

В статье анализируются изменения в процессах формирования правящих коалиций, происходившие в последние два десятилетия в 16 европейских странах (4 последних цикла парламентских выборов). Проведенное исследование подтвердило, что этот процесс становится более сложным: многие партийные системы фрагментируются, средний размер коалиции уменьшается, более частотными становятся коалиции, не опирающиеся на поддержку парламентского большинства (особенно характерно для Скандинавских стран). Помимо количественных показателей процесс формирования осложняется ростом влияния популистских партий, идеологически резко отличающихся от мейнстримных партий, которые обычно входят в правительство. В статье описываются разные сценарии формирования коалиций в конкретных странах. Участие популистов в правящих коалициях становится все более распространенным явлением. Их взаимодействие с системными партиями следует одному из трех сценариев – от полной или почти полной интеграции популистских партий в систему (например, Швейцария, Италия, Греция) и полной неинтеграции (правые популисты в Германии, Франции, Испании, Бельгии) до «негативной интеграции» – вынужденного и чреватого конфликтами включения правых популистов в коалиции (Австрия, Нидерланды). Вхождение популистских партий в мейнстрим партийных систем – противоречивый процесс, приносящий разные результаты в разных контекстах. Процесс развивается, поскольку популярность популистов (в т.ч. «неинтегрируемых») остается в нескольких странах на высоком уровне. Исходя из произведенного анализа, главным фактором, вызывающим усложнение формирования правящих коалиций, можно считать структурный, связанный с изменениями в расстановке сил, как количественных (фрагментирование партийных систем), так и качественных (рост влияния не вполне системных партий). Институциональные же изменения носят умеренный характер и выражаются в диверсификации сценариев и тактик формирования коалиций.

The article deals with changes in the processes of formation of government coalitions in 16 European countries during the two recent decades (4 most recent cycles of parliamentary elections). The author states that these processes become more complicated: many party systems get fragmented, the median size of the coalition tends to decline, coalitions do not enjoy majority support in parliament more frequently (particularly in Nordic countries). Beside quantitative indicators, formation of coalitions is further complicated by growing influence of populist parties, which are ideologically too far from mainstream ones that normally form governments. The article considers different scenarios of coalition formation. Participation of populist in governing coalitions becomes a frequent phenomenon. Populists’ interaction with “systemic” parties follows one of the three scenarios, from complete (or nearly complete) integration into mainstream (e.g., Switzerland, Italy, Greece) to total non-integration (right-wing populists in Germany, France, Spain, Belgium) and “negative integration”, when right-wing populists are reluctantly admitted into coalition, often with subsequent conflicts (Austria, the Netherlands). Inclusion of populist parties into mainstream party systems is a controversial process, with differing results in different contexts. These processes continue to evolve, as the popularity of populist parties (including the “non-integration” type) remains high in a number of countries. The author concludes that the principal factor which causes complications in formation of governing coalitions is structural in nature: it consists of shifts in the balance of political forces – both quantitative (i.e., fragmentation of party systems) and qualitative (growth of non-systemic parties). As for institutional changes, it exists but in moderate format, namely, diversification of scenarios and tactics of coalition formation.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.