politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАН10.31249/poln/2026.02.09politscience-1333Research ArticleРАКУРСЫЭмоциональные кривые популистской коммуникации в президентской кампании Дональда ТрампаEmotional curves of the populist communication in Donald Trump’s presidential campaigningХаритоноваО. Г.KharitonovaO. G.

Харитонова Оксана Геннадьевна, доцент кафедры сравнительной политологии

Москва

 Kharitonova Oxana

o.haritonova@inno.mgimo.ruАнкирскаяА. М.AnkirskayaA. M.

Анкирская Алла Михайловна, студентка

Москва

Ankirskaya Alla,

Moscow

ankirskaa_a_m@my.mgimo.ruМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO University MoscowRussian FederationМосковский государственный институт международных отношений (университет) МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation20263105202602Исследования политических коммуникаций: новые вызовы193221Copyright © Харитонова О.Г., Анкирская А.М., 20262026Харитонова О.Г., Анкирская А.М.Kharitonova O.G., Ankirskaya A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/1333

В статье популизм понимается в логике эмоционального подхода как сочетание гнева по отношению к «коррумпированной элите» и страха за «простой народ». Популисты обращаются к страху, конструируя угрозы и опасности для народа, в том числе в плане экономического благосостояния и личной безопасности. Гнев опредмечивает вину за вызванные угрозы, обвиняет элиту и возлагает на нее ответственность за все ошибки политики.

Статья посвящена определению роли аффективных факторов электорального поведения в США на примере дискурсивных стратегий Трампа в ходе президентских выборов 2024 г. В статье предпринята попытка выявления наличия популистского равновесия между эмоциональным «предложением» популиста Д. Трампа и эмоциональным «запросом» населения. С помощью количественного анализа данных опросов общественного мнения (ANES) авторы подтвердили гипотезы о связи между эмоциями (страхом и гневом) респондентов по отношению к политике в стране и решением поддержать кандидата (Д. Трампа или К. Харрис) на выборах.

Связь между эмоциями сохранила значимость при включении ряда контрольных переменных. Количественный контент-анализ эмоций в восьми предвыборных речах Д. Трампа в колеблющихся штатах выявил, что риторика гнева преобладает над риторикой страха и сопровождается восхвалением прошлых заслуг и будущих достижений.

С помощью критического дискурс-анализа в логике Р. Водак были идентифицированы дискурсивные стратегии, используемые Д. Трампом для конструирования эмоций страха, гнева и надежды на лучшее будущее. Выделение устойчивых конструктов и эмоционально окрашенных выражений показало, что риторика Д. Трампа апеллировала к ключевым настроениям его потенциального электората, усиливая чувства страха и гнева у аудитории, а регулярное обращение к прежним заслугам формировало у слушателей чувство восхищения и укрепляло доверие к будущей политике кандидата.

На основании проведенного анализа установлено, что специфика функционирования популизма в условиях современной электоральной конкуренции заключается в умении политического лидера использовать эмоциональное измерение политики. Апелляция к чувствам страха и гнева граждан на контрасте с самовосхвалением кандидата позволяет популистам мобилизовать протестный (разгневанный и испуганный) электорат.

The article defines populism within the framework of the emotional approach as a combination of anger towards the “corrupt elites” and fear for the “pure people”. Populists appeal to fear by constructing threats and dangers to the people, including those related to economic well-being and security. In turn, anger objectifies blame for the perceived threats by accusing the elites and shifting the responsibility towards them for policy failures. Using the 2024 presidential election as a case study, the article identifies the role of affective factors in electoral behavior in the United States. It attempts to determine whether a populist equilibrium exists between the emotional “supply” offered by the populist leader Donald Trump and the emotional “demand” of the electorate. Using quantitative analysis of public opinion survey data (ANES), the authors test and confirm the hypotheses regarding the connection between respondents’ emotions (namely fear and anger) toward how well things are going on in the country and their decision to support a particular candidate (either Trump or Harris) in the election. This correlation remained statistically significant after a number of control variables and their combinations were included.

A quantitative content analysis of emotions in eight rally speeches delivered by Trump in swing states reveals that the rhetoric of anger dominated over the rhetoric of fear and was accompanied by praise of past achievements and promises of future accomplishments. Critical discourse analysis identified Trump’s discursive strategies eliciting fear, anger, and hope for a better future. The article demonstrates that Trump’s rhetoric appealed to the core sentiments of his potential electorate, intensifying feelings of fear and anger among the audience. References to past achievements generated admiration and reinforced trust in the candidate’s future policies. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that the peculiar nature of populism within the conditions of contemporary electoral competitiveness lies in the political leader’s ability to leverage the emotional dimension of politics. By appealing to citizens’ feelings of fear and anger while fueling them with self-praise, populists are able to mobilize an angry and anxious protest electorate. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.