politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАНpolitscience-210Research ArticleСтатьиКОГДА ВЫБОРЫ ВЫХОДЯТ ИЗ-ПОД КОНТРОЛЯ? НЕПРЕДНАМЕРЕННЫЕ ЭЛЕКТОРАЛЬНЫЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ В СОРЕВНОВАТЕЛЬНЫХ АВТОРИТАРНЫХ РЕЖИМАХWhen Elections Get Out of Hand? Unintended Electoral Outcomes in the Competitive Authoritarian RegimesЗавадскаяМаргарита Андреевнаmzavadskaya@eu.spb.ru; margarita.zavadskaya@eui.euZavadskayaM. .noemail@neicon.ruЕвропейский университет во Флоренции (European University Institute); Европейский университет в Санкт-ПетербургеРоссия20121105202303Политические режимы в XXI веке: Институциональная устойчивость и трансформации125148Copyright © Завадская М.А., Zavadskaya M..., 20232023Завадская М.А., Zavadskaya M...Завадская М.А., Zavadskaya M...This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/210

В статье анализируются непреднамеренные последствия выборов в условиях соревновательных авторитарных режимов. На основании двух измерений - электоральная победа или поражение и наличие массовых протестов - автор выделяет и анализирует четыре теоретически возможных исхода выборов в подобных режимах. В статье представлены результаты количественного анализа 349 выборов, состоявшихся в период с 1990 по 2011 г. в странах соревновательного авторитаризма. Исследование позволяет рассчитывать вероятность реализации того или иного типа непреднамеренных электоральных последствий.

The author analyses unintended or unanticipated outcomes of elections in the competitive authoritarian regimes. There is a distinction between four types of outcomes drawing on two dimensions - electoral results (victory or failure) and absence or presence of the mass protests immediately after elections. The non-parametric multivariate regression analysis of 349 cases from 1990 to 2011 allows calculating the statistical probabilities of the occurrence of particular type of unintended outcomes relative to pro-hegemonic scenario.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.