politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАНpolitscience-408Research ArticleКОНТЕКСТИГРА В БИСЕР? КОНВЕНЦИОНАЛЬНЫЕ КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННЫЕ МЕТОДЫ В СВЕТЕ ТЕЗИСА ДЮЭМА-КУАЙНАThe Glass Bead Game? Conventional quantitative methods in the light of Duhem-Quine thesisЛокшинИгорь МихайловичLokshinI. M.ilokshin@hse.ruНациональный исследовательский университет - Высшая школа экономикиРоссия20151105202302Познавательные возможности политической науки80103Copyright © Локшин И.М., 20232023Локшин И.М.Lokshin I.M.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/408

В статье предпринята попытка на эпистемологическом уровне прояснить методологические проблемы, связанные с использованием конвенционального количественного анализа в политической науке. Для этого конвенциональные количественные методы рассматриваются сквозь призму тезиса Дюэма-Куайна. Особое внимание уделяется трем исследовательским практикам количественного анализа: 1) тестированию нулевых гипотез как самодовлеющего аналитического инструмента; 2) невниманию к каузальной неоднородности явлений в больших выборках; 3) применению операционализаций переменных, подверженных большому числу интерпретаций. Распространенность этих практик ведет к усугублению: а) структурной недодетерминированности теорий; б) возможности формулировать большое число теорий при усложнении их эмпирической проверки; в) трудностей по достижению конвенции о границе между фактами и теориями. Формулируются вопросы об условиях прогресса в политической науке с точки зрения тезиса Дюэма-Куайна.

The paper applies the Duhem-Quine thesis to conventional quantitative methods in political science. As a result, the discussion of methodological problems associated with these methods is implanted into the epistemological issues highlighted by Duhem-Quine thesis. Special attention is devoted to the widespread research practices, such as 1) null hypothesis significance testing, 2) large-N analysis and 3) dealing with phenomena with a very broad and general character. The paper argues that, partly due to these practices, some epistomological problems are aggravated: a) structural underdetermination of theories is exacerbated; b) the value of new theories tested via old data becomes unclear and doubtful; c) the convention about the boundary between theories and facts is harder to achieve. Some questions about the conditions of the progress in political science are posed.

методология политической наукиколичественные методытезис Дюэма-Куайнаpolitical science methodologyquantitative methodsDuhem-Quine thesisReferencesАлмонд Г. Политическая наука: история дисциплины // Политическая наука: новые направления / Под ред. Гудин Р., Клингеманн Х.-Д. - М., 1999. - С. 69-112.Алмонд Г. Политическая наука: история дисциплины // Политическая наука: новые направления / Под ред. Гудин Р., Клингеманн Х.-Д. - М., 1999. - С. 69-112.Мельвиль А.Ю., Стукал Д.К. Условия демократии и пределы демократизации // Полис: Политические исследования. - М., 2011. - № 3. - С. 164-183.Мельвиль А.Ю., Стукал Д.К. Условия демократии и пределы демократизации // Полис: Политические исследования. - М., 2011. - № 3. - С. 164-183.Acemoglu D., Robinson J. Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. - Cambridge: Cambridge univ. press, 2006. - 434 p.Acemoglu D., Robinson J. Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. - Cambridge: Cambridge univ. press, 2006. - 434 p.Achen C. Toward a new political methodology: microfoundations and ART // Annual review of political science. - 2002. - N 5. - P. 423-450.Achen C. Toward a new political methodology: microfoundations and ART // Annual review of political science. - 2002. - N 5. - P. 423-450.Bakan D. The test of ignificance in psychological research // Psychological bulletin. -1966. - Vol. 66, N 6. - P. 423-437.Bakan D. The test of ignificance in psychological research // Psychological bulletin. -1966. - Vol. 66, N 6. - P. 423-437.Berk R., Western B., Weiss R. Statistical influence for apparent populations // Sociological methodology. - 1995. - Vol. 25. - P. 421-458.Berk R., Western B., Weiss R. Statistical influence for apparent populations // Sociological methodology. - 1995. - Vol. 25. - P. 421-458.Boix C. Democracy and redistirbution. - Cambridge: Cambridge univ. press, 2003. - 284 p.Boix C. Democracy and redistirbution. - Cambridge: Cambridge univ. press, 2003. - 284 p.Chernoff F. The impact of duhemian principles on social science testing and progress. // Oxford handbook of philosophy of social science / Ed. by Harold Kincaid. - New York: Oxford univ. press, 2012. - P. 229-258.Chernoff F. The impact of duhemian principles on social science testing and progress. // Oxford handbook of philosophy of social science / Ed. by Harold Kincaid. - New York: Oxford univ. press, 2012. - P. 229-258.Clarke K. The Phantom menace: Omitted variable bias in econometric research // Conflict management and peace science. - 2005. - N 22. - P. 341-352.Clarke K. The Phantom menace: Omitted variable bias in econometric research // Conflict management and peace science. - 2005. - N 22. - P. 341-352.Cohen J. Things I have learned (So Far) // American psychologist. - 1990. - Vol. 45, N 12. - P. 1304-1312.Cohen J. Things I have learned (So Far) // American psychologist. - 1990. - Vol. 45, N 12. - P. 1304-1312.Cohen J. A power primer // Psychological bulletin. - 1992. - Vol. 112, N 1. - P. 155-159.Cohen J. A power primer // Psychological bulletin. - 1992. - Vol. 112, N 1. - P. 155-159.Cohen J. The Earth Is round (p № 0.05) // American psychologist. - 1994. - Vol. 49, N 12. - P. 997-1003.Cohen J. The Earth Is round (p № 0.05) // American psychologist. - 1994. - Vol. 49, N 12. - P. 997-1003.Cross R. The Duhem-Quine thesis, Lakatos and the Appraisal of theories in macroeconomics // The economic journal. - 1982. - Vol. 92. - P. 320-340.Cross R. The Duhem-Quine thesis, Lakatos and the Appraisal of theories in macroeconomics // The economic journal. - 1982. - Vol. 92. - P. 320-340.Duhem P. La theorie physique. Son objet et sa structure. - Paris, 1906. - 450 p.Duhem P. La theorie physique. Son objet et sa structure. - Paris, 1906. - 450 p.Geddes B. What causes democratization? // The Oxford handbook of comparative politics / Ed. by Carles Boix, Susan C. Stokes. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press. - 2007. - P. 317-339.Geddes B. What causes democratization? // The Oxford handbook of comparative politics / Ed. by Carles Boix, Susan C. Stokes. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press. - 2007. - P. 317-339.Gerring J. Causal mechanisms: Yes, But.. // Comparative political studies. - 2010. - Vol. 43, N 11. - P. 1499-1526.Gerring J. Causal mechanisms: Yes, But.. // Comparative political studies. - 2010. - Vol. 43, N 11. - P. 1499-1526.Gerring J. Social science methodology: A unified framework. - Cambridge, Cambridge univ. press, 2012. - 522 p.Gerring J. Social science methodology: A unified framework. - Cambridge, Cambridge univ. press, 2012. - 522 p.Gill J. The insignificance of null hypothesis significance testing // Political research quarterly. - 1999. - Vol. 52, N 3. - P. 647-654.Gill J. The insignificance of null hypothesis significance testing // Political research quarterly. - 1999. - Vol. 52, N 3. - P. 647-654.Hay C. Political ontology. // The Oxford handbook of contextual political analysis / Ed. by Robert E. Goodin, Charles Tilly. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press., 2006. - P. 78-96.Hay C. Political ontology. // The Oxford handbook of contextual political analysis / Ed. by Robert E. Goodin, Charles Tilly. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press., 2006. - P. 78-96.Hoover K., Siegler M. Sound and fury: McCloskey and significance testing in economics // Journal of economic methodology. - 2008. - Vol. 15, N 1. - P. 1-37.Hoover K., Siegler M. Sound and fury: McCloskey and significance testing in economics // Journal of economic methodology. - 2008. - Vol. 15, N 1. - P. 1-37.King G., Keohane R., Verba S. Designing social inquiry: Scientific inference in qualitative research. - Princeton: Princeton univ. press, 1994. - 300 p.King G., Keohane R., Verba S. Designing social inquiry: Scientific inference in qualitative research. - Princeton: Princeton univ. press, 1994. - 300 p.McCloskey D. The loss function has been mislaid: The rhetoric of significance tests // American economic review. - 1985. - Vol. 75, N 2. - P. 201-205.McCloskey D. The loss function has been mislaid: The rhetoric of significance tests // American economic review. - 1985. - Vol. 75, N 2. - P. 201-205.Meehl P. Testing Theories in psychology and physics: A methodological paradox // Philosophy of science. - 1967. - Vol. 34, N 2. - P. 103-115.Meehl P. Testing Theories in psychology and physics: A methodological paradox // Philosophy of science. - 1967. - Vol. 34, N 2. - P. 103-115.Meehl P. Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian defence and two principles what warrant it // Psychological inquiry. - 1990. - Vol. 1, N 2. - P. 108-141.Meehl P. Appraising and amending theories: The strategy of Lakatosian defence and two principles what warrant it // Psychological inquiry. - 1990. - Vol. 1, N 2. - P. 108-141.Meehl P. Why summaries of research on psychological theories are often uninterpretable // Psychological reports. - 1990. - Vol. 66. - P. 195-244.Meehl P. Why summaries of research on psychological theories are often uninterpretable // Psychological reports. - 1990. - Vol. 66. - P. 195-244.Mill J. A System of logic ratiocinative and inductive. - Toronto, Toronto univ. press, 1974. - 1254 p.Mill J. A System of logic ratiocinative and inductive. - Toronto, Toronto univ. press, 1974. - 1254 p.Quine W. Main trends in recent philosophy: Two dogmas of empiricism // The philosophical review. - 1951. - Vol. 60, N 1. - P. 20-43.Quine W. Main trends in recent philosophy: Two dogmas of empiricism // The philosophical review. - 1951. - Vol. 60, N 1. - P. 20-43.Rainey C. Testing hypotheses of no meaningful effect // The society for political methodology. - 2014. - 31 p. - Mode of access: http://www.polmeth.wustl.edu/Rainey C. Testing hypotheses of no meaningful effect // The society for political methodology. - 2014. - 31 p. - Mode of access: http://www.polmeth.wustl.edu/media/Paper/nme.pdf (Дата посещения: 23.08.2014.)media/Paper/nme.pdf (Дата посещения: 23.08.2014.)Rethinking social inquiry: diverse tools, shared standards / Eds. Brady H., Collier D. - L.: Rowman and Littlefield publishers, 2004. - 428 p.Rethinking social inquiry: diverse tools, shared standards / Eds. Brady H., Collier D. - L.: Rowman and Littlefield publishers, 2004. - 428 p.Rosato S. The flawed logic of democratic peace rheory // American political science review. - 2003. - Vol. 97, N 4. - P. 585-602.Rosato S. The flawed logic of democratic peace rheory // American political science review. - 2003. - Vol. 97, N 4. - P. 585-602.Ross M. Does oil hinder democracy? // World politics. - 2001. - Vol. 53. - P. 325-361.Ross M. Does oil hinder democracy? // World politics. - 2001. - Vol. 53. - P. 325-361.Rozeboom W. The fallacy of the null-hypothesis significance test // Psychological bulletin. - 1960. - Vol. 57, N 5. - P. 416-428.Rozeboom W. The fallacy of the null-hypothesis significance test // Psychological bulletin. - 1960. - Vol. 57, N 5. - P. 416-428.Sawyer K., Beed C., Sankey H. Underdetermination in economics. The duhem-quine thesis // Economic and philosophy. - 1997. - Vol. 13, N 1. - P. 1-23.Sawyer K., Beed C., Sankey H. Underdetermination in economics. The duhem-quine thesis // Economic and philosophy. - 1997. - Vol. 13, N 1. - P. 1-23.Schrodt P. Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis // Journal of peace research. - 2014. - Vol. 51, N 2. - P. 287-300.Schrodt P. Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis // Journal of peace research. - 2014. - Vol. 51, N 2. - P. 287-300.Stanford K. Underdetermination of scientific theory // Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. - 2009. - 12 August. - Mode of access: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/Stanford K. Underdetermination of scientific theory // Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. - 2009. - 12 August. - Mode of access: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-underdetermination/ (Дата посещения: 08.03.2014.)scientific-underdetermination/ (Дата посещения: 08.03.2014.)Ward M., Greenhill B., Bakke K. The perils of policy by p-value // Journal of peace research. - 2010. - Vol. 47, N 4. - P. 363-375.Ward M., Greenhill B., Bakke K. The perils of policy by p-value // Journal of peace research. - 2010. - Vol. 47, N 4. - P. 363-375.Welzel C. Theories of democratization // Democratization / Ed. by Christian Haerpfer, Patrick Bernhagen, Ronald Inglehart, Christian Welzel. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press, 2009. - P. 74-90.Welzel C. Theories of democratization // Democratization / Ed. by Christian Haerpfer, Patrick Bernhagen, Ronald Inglehart, Christian Welzel. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press, 2009. - P. 74-90.Welzel C., Inglehart R. The role of ordinary people in democratization // Journal of democracy. - 2008. - Vol. 19, N 1. - P. 126-140.Welzel C., Inglehart R. The role of ordinary people in democratization // Journal of democracy. - 2008. - Vol. 19, N 1. - P. 126-140.Western B., Jackman S. Bayesian inference for comparative research // The American political science review. - 1994. - Vol. 88, N 2. - P. 412-423.Western B., Jackman S. Bayesian inference for comparative research // The American political science review. - 1994. - Vol. 88, N 2. - P. 412-423.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.