politscienceПолитическая наукаPolitical science1998-1775ИНИОН РАНpolitscience-607Research ArticleСтатьиДве моих мечты. (Изложение лекции Рейна Таагеперы, лауреата премии имени Карла Дойча)Two my dreams. (Summary of the Rein Taagepera 's lecture, Karl Deutsch’s prize laureate)ТаагепераРейнTaageperaReinnoemail@neicon.ruКалифорнийский университет в ИрвинеРоссияUniversity of CaliforniaRussian Federation20181205202301Будущее политической науки1239Copyright © Таагепера Р., 20232023Таагепера Р.Taagepera R.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/607

Наука шагает на двух ногах. Первый шаг заключается в вопросе о положении дел. Ответ дают наблюдение, измерение, визуализация и статистическое описание. Второй шаг состоит в выяснении того, как должны бы обстоять дела из соображений логики. Тут ответ дают логические модели, подкрепленные количественными предсказаниями. Наука большей частью состоит из таких моделей, проверяемых на данных. Развитая наука устанавливает связи не только между индивидуальными факторами, но и связи между этими связями. Однако социальные науки часто идут более простой дорогой и подгоняют исходные данные под прямую линию или какую-то модную схему, не отдавая себе отчета в необходимости думать и строить модели на основе логики. Решительное обновление методологии социальных наук является настоятельным.

Science walks on two legs. One leg consists of asking: How things are ? This leads to observation, measurement, graphing, and statistical description. The other leg consists of asking: How things should be , on logical grounds? This leads to logical models that should become quantitatively predictive. Science largely consists of such models, tested with data. Developed science establishes not only connections among individual factors but also connections among these connections. But social sciences often take the lazy road of fitting raw data with a straight line or some fashionable format, unaware of the need to think and build models based on logic. Major widening in social science methodology is crucial.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.