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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">politscience</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Политическая наука</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Political science</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1998-1775</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ИНИОН РАН</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31249/poln/2021.03.04</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">politscience-809</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИДЕИ И ПРАКТИКА</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Эмпирическая модель анализа динамики алгоритмизации (технологии искусственного интеллекта) в сфере обеспечения безопасности на примере США</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Empirical model for analysis of the dynamics of algorithmization (artificial intelligence technology) in the field of security by the example of the USA</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Туробов</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Turobov</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Туробов Алексей Владимирович, научный сотрудник Факультета социальных наук, преподаватель Департамента политики и управления, аспирантаспирантской школы по политическим наукам</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">aturobov@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Миронюк</surname><given-names>М. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mironyuk</surname><given-names>M. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Миронюк Михаил Григорьевич, кандидат политических наук, доцент Департамента политики и управления</p><p>Москва</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Moscow</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">mmironyuk@hse.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">HSE University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>18</day><month>05</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><issue-title>Цифровизация политики</issue-title><fpage>72</fpage><lpage>111</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Туробов А.В., Миронюк М.Г., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Туробов А.В., Миронюк М.Г.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Turobov A.V., Mironyuk M.G.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/809">https://www.politnauka.ru/jour/article/view/809</self-uri><abstract><p>Как меняется система безопасности государства под влиянием технологии искусственного интеллекта (ИИ)? В статье предлагается эмпирическая модель оценивания системы безопасности государства (на примере США) на основе показателя согласованности (консистентности) безопасности, измеряющего то, как государство оценивает угрозы (показатель угроз), а также наличный уровень возможностей для их отражения (показатель возможностей) применительно к технологиям искусственного интеллекта. Показатель согласованности (консистентности) безопасности, по сути, описывает то, как государство способно оценивать угрозы (показатель угроз), и отвечает на вопрос, обладает ли государство необходимым уровнем возможностей для их отражения (показатель возможностей). Разработанная модель (а также концептуализация технологии искусственного интеллекта в контексте сферы обеспечения безопасности) предоставляет свидетельства того, «как» происходят изменения в сфере обеспечения безопасности при помощи эмпирической модели, и представляет собой инструмент для изучения соответствующих изменений и оценки системы обеспечения безопасности государства. Необходимо обозначить ограничение исследования: мы не рассматриваем непосредственные военные приложения в области автоматизации и алгоритмизации (технологии искусственного интеллекта). Валидизация представленной эмпирической модели проводилась на кейсе США (анализу подлежат восемь временных промежутков, а именно: 1999, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019 гг.). Примечательно то, как меняются с развитием самой технологии «заинтересованность» государства и определение угроз, а также стремительный рост возможностей технологии искусственного интеллекта (в годы максимального прогресса в вычислительных мощностях и появления новых алгоритмов), а с 2012 г. динамика - более поступательная, так как все новые и новые «открытия» имеют скорее не революционный, а эволюционный характер. Отличительной чертой модели является ее масштабируемость, которая выражается в возможности замены технологии искусственного интеллекта на любой другой тип цифровых технологий. В результате появляется возможность прослеживать динамику изменений системы безопасности государства, но уже применительно к иным технологиям, а затем проводить сравнительный анализ стран.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>How does the state security system evolve under the influence of the artificial intelligence technology? To answer this question, an empirical model is proposed. The model evaluates the state security system (by the example of the USA) using the security consistency parameter, which estimates how the state perceives threats (indicator of threats) and whether the state has the necessary capabilities to counter them (indicator of capabilities) in relation to the artificial intelligence technology. The model (as well as the conceptualization of the artificial intelligence technology in the context of the security domain) provides evidence of how security transformations occur. It serves as a tool for studying the corresponding changes and assessing the state security system. It is necessary to indicate the limitation of the study: we do not consider direct military applications in the field of automation and algorithms (artificial intelligence technology). The validation of the empirical model has been undertaken using the case of the USA (eight-time intervals are subject to analysis, namely: 1999, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019). With the development of the technology itself, the “interest” of the state and the definition of threats, as well as the rapid growth of the capabilities of the artificial intelligence technology (coincides with the years of maximum progress in computing power and the introduction of new algorithms) are growing, and since 2012, the dynamic has been linear, since more new “discoveries” have contributed to evolutionary rather than “revolutionary” growth trajectory. The developed model is scalable. This feature may be useful in the empirical security studies: the artificial intelligence technology within the model can be replaced with other types of digital technologies (for example, big data, cloud computing or 5 g connection technologies, etc.); thus, empirical models of security consistency under the impact of other technologies can be developed. The approach proposed allows to under- take cross-country comparisons with respect to specific types of digital technologies and their interactions with the security domain.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>безопасность</kwd><kwd>исследования безопасности</kwd><kwd>модель</kwd><kwd>ис- кусственный интеллект</kwd><kwd>оценка угроз</kwd><kwd>система безопасности государства</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>security</kwd><kwd>security studies</kwd><kwd>model</kwd><kwd>artificial intelligence</kwd><kwd>threat evaluation</kwd><kwd>national security</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group xml:lang="ru"><funding-statement>Исследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РФФИ и ЭИСИ в рамках научного проекта № 20–011–31658. Авторы выражают благодарность анонимным рецензентам за критику, а также В.В. Кабернику (МГИМО МИД России) и Д.В. Стефановичу (ИМЭМО РАН имени Е.М. Примакова) за поддержку и ценные предложения</funding-statement></funding-group><funding-group xml:lang="en"><funding-statement>The reported study was funded by RFBR and EISR according to the research project № 20–011–31658. The authors appreciate criticism of anonymous reviewers. The authors thank Vitaly Kabernik (MGIMO University) and Dmitry Stefanovich (IMEMO RAS) for support and advice</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Aletras N., Tsarapatsanis D., Preoţiuc-Pietro D., Lampos V. Predicting judicial decisions of the European court of human rights: A natural language processing perspective. PeerJ computer science. 2016, Vol. 2, P. 93.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Aletras N., Tsarapatsanis D., Preoţiuc-Pietro D., Lampos V. 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