Geopolitical factors in the intensification of Russia's economic ties with the countries of the Middle East and Southern Asia

Since the beginning of 2022, there have been many patterns in the development of Russia's foreign trade and investment relations, but the explanation of these new trends cannot be fully understood without additional political analysis. In particular, geopolitical factors are disrupting the traditional logic of relying on comparative advantages in foreign trade specialization. The rapid transformation of the current global order is also causing significant distortions in geographical trade and foreign investment priorities. Thus, Russia's pivot to the Global South has significantly weakened the effects of neighborhood and cultural-historical proximity (traditionally assessed in economic studies, for example, using gravitational models and characteristics of the so-called investment climate). The article provides the author's assessments of the contradictory statistics on Russia's foreign trade in recent years. By combining economic and political analysis, the article explains the rapid rise of India, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, and Iran among Russia's partners. Special attention is given to the expansion of BRICS and the promotion of major infrastructure projects involving Russia. The article demonstrates that neither the prospects for nuclear power plant construction nor the development of international transport corridors can be studied without considering the capabilities of political science. The paper separately examines the sharp deterioration of Russia's relations with the “collective West” and the general trend towards increased polycentrism in global politics as factors that are stimulating Russia's economic pivot towards the Global South, i.e., the “pushing” factors are combined with the “pulling” factors. The paper highlights the long-term significance for Russia of its ties with important segments of the Global South, such as the Middle East (including Iran) and South Asia.

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