Electoral cleavages in Germany after 2021 Bundestag elections: spatial analysis

The article is dedicated to electoral cleavages in Germany. Following S. Rokkan’s tradition, the author focused on center-periphery and urban-rural cleavages. With the use of longue durée concept, the center-periphery relations in Germany are described, as well as the ossi-wessi formation and the differences between the two. Spatial analysis indicated the cluster of support for the German parties during the last three electoral cycles (2013, 2017 and 2021). Multivariate explanatory data analysis showed the correlation between voting, economic and demographic indicators. The non-spatial model depicted the clusters of party support in dynamics which was useful for comparison of the three electoral cycles. Based on Moran's index calculations, the spatial autocorrelation of the election results in the German lands was shown. Its values were significant for 2013, 2017 and 2021 SPD voting, as well as for 2013 and 2017 Die Linke voting and 2017 AfD voting. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation also indicated clusters of support for SPD, Die Linke and AfD. Historical, economic and demographic factors help to indicate the electoral cleavages in Germany which run across the line between ossi and wessi. As for the transformation of electoral preferences in German lands, SPD 2021 victory can be explained among other with CoVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis and decrease in the economic indicators.

1. Anselin L. Local indicators of spatial association – LISA. Geographical analysis. 1995, N 27, P. 93–115.

2. Best H. Politischer regionalismus in Deutschland und Frankreich im intertemporalinterkulturellen Vergleich. Historical social research. Historische sozialforschung, supplement. Führungsgruppen und Massenbewegungen im historischen Vergleich. Der Beitrag der Historischen Sozialforschung zu einer diachronen Sozialwissenschaf, 2008, N 20, P. 261–283. (In Germ.)

3. Cliff A., Ord J.K. Spatial autocorrelation. London: Pion, 1973, 178 p.

4. Conradt D.P. The Civic culture and unified Germany: an overview. German politics. 2015, Vol. 24, N 32, P. 249–270.

5. Dalton R.J., Weldon S. Germans divided? Political culture in a United Germany. German politics. 2010, Vol. 19, N 1, P. 9–23.

6. Grüner W.D. Der Deutsche Bund 1815-1866. Münich: C.H. Beck, 2012, 127 p. (In Germ.)

7. Haffert L. The long-term effects of oppression: Prussia, political Catholicism, and the alternative für Deutschland. American political science review. 2022, Vol. 116, N 2, P. 595–614.

8. Komlosy A. Globalgeschichte. Methoden und Probleme. Vienna: Böhlau, 2011, 276 p. (In Germ.)

9. Kowalczuk I-S. Verlag C.H. Die Übernahme: Wie Ostdeutschland Teil der Bundesrepublik wurde. München: Beck oHG, 2019, 319 p. (In Germ.)

10. Kühn M., Sommer H. Periphere Zentren – Städte in peripherisierten Regionen. Theoretische Zugänge, Handlungskonzepte und eigener Forschungsatz. Working Paper, Erkner, Leibniz-Institut für Regionalenwicklung und Strukturplanung, 2013, 34 p. (In Germ.)

11. Lefebvre H. Espace et politique. Le droit à la ville II. 2e éd. Paris: Anthropos, 2000, 174 p. (In Fr.)

12. Lipset S., Rokkan S. Cleavage structures, party systems and voter alignment: An introduction. Political Science (RU). 2004, N 4, P. 204–234. (In Russ.)

13. Manow P., Flügel D. « Erbe ses Kulturkampfs » oder «Folge programmatischer Verschiebung»? Die katholischen Wähler und die AfD – eine Replikationsstudie. Politische Vierteljahresschrift. 2023, N 64, P. 585–601. (In Germ.)

14. Norpoth H. Lewis-Beck M.S., Lafay J.-D. Economics and politics: the calculus of support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan press, 1991, 293 p.

15. Norris P. The “New Cleavage” Thesis: The Social Basis of Right-Wing Support. In: P. Norris (ed.). Radical right: voters and parties in the electoral market. Cambridge: Cambridge university press, 2005, P. 129–148.

16. Okunev I.Yu. Cyclicity of ideological and political cleavages in the electoral space. Perm university herald. Political science. 2022, Vol. 16, N 3, P. 52–62. (In Russ.)

17. Okunev I.Yu., Kushnareva A.E. Alternative spatial weights matrices: Methodology and applicationin calculating LISA. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Earth Sciences. 2023, Vol. 68, N 2, P. 390–413. (In Russ.)

18. Rokkan S. Center periphery structures. Political science. 2006, N 4, P. 73–101. (In Russ.)

19. Rokkan S., Urvin D. Politics of territorial identity. European regionalism. Logos. 2003, N 6 (40), P. 117–126. (In Russ.)

20. Shestakova M.N., Gruzdeva E.E., Kovbas E.S. Spatial Distribution of Human Capital’s Environmental Parameters. The Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Series Political Science and Religion Studies. 2023, Vol. 45, P. 75–89. (In Russ.)

21. Wegman E.J., Dorfman A. Visualizing cereal world. Computational statistics and data analysis. 2003, N 43 (4), P. 633–649.

22. Winkler G. Friedliche Revolution und deutsche Vereinigung 1989 bis 2017: BAND II: Nachhaltige Stabilisierung ungleicher Lebensverhältnisse zwischen Ost und West. Friedliche. Trafo Wissenschaftsverlag. Auflage: 1. 2018. 20. März. 702 p. (In Germ.)

23. Zhirnova L.S. regional trends in electoral support for Latvian parties: the neighbourhood effect. Baltic region. 2022, Vol. 14, N 1, P. 138–158. (In Russ.)