Multipolarity and Multilateralism as the Two Dimensions of the Future World Order

The article examines the interaction of multipolarity and multilateralism as two independent variables influencing the formation of the new world order. The author describes assets and liabilities of multilateral mechanisms for solving international security and development problems, the differences between the likely future models of multilateral cooperation and the models of the XX century, the impact of globalization and deglobalization on the development of multilateralism in international relations. The differences between a narrow (conservative) and a broad (radical) understanding of multilateralism are revealed, special attention is paid to the role of values as the basis of stable and effective multilateral mechanisms. The author criticizes the notion that such mechanisms are possible only if their participants are liberal democracies, concluding that multilateral practices should reflect convergence of interests rather than community of values. The article enumerates the conditions for the effectiveness of multilateral agreements, including the principle of “diffuse reciprocity”, that is, the readiness of the parties to such agreements to sacrifice part of their immediate specific interests for the sake of supposed, although not yet clearly defined, reciprocal steps on the part of partners. The author argues that future multilateral institutions, regimes and agreements are likely to function in a system that does not have a single and universally recognized hegemon and in conditions of relative weakness of international organizations and international law. The author concludes that in the near future, the most productive and least costly formats of “project multilateralism” will imply putting together flexible situational coalitions of states and non-state participants in international relations to solve specific problems of global and regional governance. The accumulation of positive practices of “project multilateralism” will make it possible to move gradually to more advanced practices of “strategic multilateralism”.

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