Traps set by statistics and how to evade them
https://doi.org/10.31249/poln/2024.02.11
Abstract
The article takes a critical view of the data-driven approaches to public management and the common pitfalls in decision-making stemming from unreliable data and misinterpretations. Historical examples of misconceptions made by US Secretary of Defense R. McNamara are given, and the disastrous policy of discarding qualitative assessments in favor of using only measurable parameters are examined. By the example of incorrect interpretation of demographic statistics in Kosovo, the influence of deliberately false and uncritically perceived information in decision-making regarding the national policy in the former Yugoslavia and further humanitarian intervention under the auspices of protecting the Albanian population from genocide are examined. The reasons for these misconceptions are studied and examples of correct interpretations are provided. The author also focuses on the means to avoid traps set by available statistics. Basing on the author’s experience in preliminary analysis and processing of data used in academic projects, methods are proposed to circumvent the typical “traps” of statistics that lead to incorrect interpretations and findings.
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared within the consortium of MGIMO University and HSE University and funded by the grant for the implementation of the Priority 2030 Strategic Academic Leadership Program.
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