Amorphous “hard power”? Approaches to the reconceptualization and empirical measurement of military power in international relations

The article focuses on the conceptual and methodological difficulties of empirical assessment of the states’ military capabilities. Contemporary IR theory and political science mostly interpret military power as a dispositional or episodic characteristic. The first approach comprises the estimation of resources and material capabilities available to a state to violently coerce (or resist coercion) in international politics. The second approach suggests that military power only actualizes itself through direct usage in armed conflicts. The article provides a detailed examination of the conceptual and empirical advantages and limitations of both approaches. As the literature review demonstrates, while realist IR literature piques a lot of attention to the distribution of military power in the international system, it struggles to resolve methodological difficulties of empirical assessment and, therefore, actual ranking of military capabilities of states. The second part of the article explores empirical attempts to measure military power in IR. The author concludes that existing solutions are limited to proxy indicators such as defense expenditures and military personnel numbers. The final part of the article suggests promising indicators of military power as a dispositional or episodic phenomenon.

1. Akhremenko A.S., Mironyuk M.G. The world ten years later: dynamics of the potentials of international influence of states. Social sciences and contemporary world. 2019, N 1, P. 39–59. DOI: http://doi.org/10.31857/S086904990003941-7 (In Russ.)

2. Allen M.A. The influence of regional power distributions on interdependence. Journal of conflict resolution. 2018, Vol. 62, N 5, P. 1072–1099. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716669809

3. Allen M.A., Flynn M. E., Martinez M.C. US global military deployments, 1950–2020 //Conflict Management and Peace Science. 2022. Vol. 62. №. 5. P. 351-370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942211030885

4. Anders T., Fariss C.J., Markowitz J.N. Bread before guns or butter: introducing Surplus Domestic Product (SDP). International studies quarterly. 2020, Vol. 64, N 2, P. 392–405. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa013

5. Baldwin D.A. Force, fungibility, and influence. Security studies. 1999, Vol. 8, N 4, P. 173–183. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419908429389

6. Baldwin D.A. Power and international relations. In: Risse T., Carlsnaes W., Simmons B.A. (eds). Handbook of international relations. Los Angeles: Sage, 2013, P. 273–297.

7. Baldwin D.A. Power and international relations: a conceptual approach. Princeton, NJ; Oxford: Princeton university press, 2016, 240 p.

8. Beckley M. The power of nations: measuring what matters. International Security. 2018, Vol. 43, N 2, P. 7–44. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00328

9. Berenskoetter F., Williams M.J. Thinking about power. In: Berenskoetter F., Williams M. J. (eds). Power in world politics. London: Routledge, 2007, P. 11–32.

10. Beyerchen A. Clausewitz, nonlinearity, and the unpredictability of war. International security. 1992, Vol. 17, N 3, P. 59–90. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2539130

11. Brooks S.G., Wohlforth W.C. The rise and fall of the great powers in the twenty-first century: China's rise and the fate of America's global position. International security. 2015, Vol. 40, N 3, P. 7–53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00225

12. Dafoe A., Oneal J. R., Russett B. The democratic peace: weighing the evidence and cautious inference. International studies quarterly. 2013, Vol. 57, N 1, P. 201–214. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12055

13. Dahl R.A. The concept of power. Behavioral science. 1957, Vol. 2, N 3, P. 201–215. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/bs.3830020303

14. Degterev D.A. Assessing the current balance of power in the international arena and the formation of a multipolar world. Moscow: Rusayns, 2020, 214 p. (In Russ.)

15. Drezner D. Power and international relations: a temporal view. European journal of international relations. 2021, Vol. 27, N 1, P. 29–52. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066120969800

16. Farrell T. Culture and military power. Review of international studies. 1998, Vol. 24, N 3, P. 407–416. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210598004070

17. Farrell T. World culture and military power. Security studies. 2005, Vol. 14, N 3, P. 448–488. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410500323187

18. Fomin I., Silaev N., Makarycheva A., Stolyarova S., Shavlaya E. Russia’s allies’ formal obligations vs. effective cooperation. International trends. 2019, Vol. 17, N 2, P. 101–130. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2019.17.2.57.6 (In Russ.)

19. Gannon J.A. Planes, trains, and armored mobiles: introducing a Dataset of the Global Distribution of Military Capabilities. International studies quarterly. 2023, Vol. 67, N 4, sqad081. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqad081

20. Gilpin R. War and change in world politics. Cambridge: Cambridge university press, 1981, 272 p.

21. Gorelskiy I.E., Mironyuk M.G. Climbing up the status ladder: An experiment in empirical research of relation between status of a state in the system of international relations and state capacity. Political science. 2019, N 3, P. 140–174. DOI: http://doi.org/10.31249/poln/2019.03.06 (In Russ.)

22. Guzzini S. From (Alleged) Unipolarity to the decline of multilateralism?: a power-theoretical critique. In: Guzzine S. (ed.). Power, realism and constructivism. London: Routledge, 2013, P. 61–76.

23. Guzzini S. Structural power: the limits of neorealist power analysis. International organization. 1993, Vol. 47, N 3, P. 443–478. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300028022

24. Holtom P., Bromley M., Simmel V. Measuring International Arms Transfers. SIPRI. 2012. Mode of access: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/files/FS/SIPRIFS1212.pdf (accessed: 23.12.2023).

25. Istomin I.A. Western theory of international military alliances. International trends. 2017, Vol. 15, N 4, P. 93–114. DOI: http://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2017.15.4.51.6 (In Russ.)

26. Kadera K., Sorokin G. Measuring national power. International interactions. 2004, Vol. 30, N 3, P. 211–230. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620490492097

27. Keohane R., Nye J. Power and interdependence. Boston: Little, Brown, and Company, 1977, 300 p.

28. Kinne B. J. The Defense Cooperation Agreement Dataset (DCAD). Journal of conflict resolution. 2020, Vol. 64, N 4, P. 729–755. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719857796

29. Lasswell H.D., Kaplan A. Power and society: a framework for political inquiry. New Haven: Yale university press, 1950, 328 p.

30. Ledyaev V.G. Power: a conceptual analysis. Moscow: Russian Political Encyclopedia (ROSSPEN), 2001, 384 p. (In Russ.)

31. Maltsev A. Network dynamics of technology diffusion in international arms transfers. International trends. 2020, Vol. 18, N 4, P. 36–61. DOI: http://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2020.18.4.63.5 (In Russ.)

32. Mearsheimer J.J. The tragedy of great power politics. New York: Norton, 2001, 578 p.

33. Melville A.Yu., Polunin Yu.A., Ilyin M.V., Mironyuk M.G., Timofeev I.N., Meleshkina E.Yu., Vaslavskiy Y. Political atlas of the modern world: an experiment in multidimensional statistical analysis of the political systems of modern world. Moscow: MGIMO University Publ., 2007, 272 p. (In Russ.)

34. Melville A.Yu., Mironyuk M.G. “Political atlas of the modern world” revisited. Polis. Political studies. 2020, N 6, P. 41–61. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2020.06.04 (In Russ.)

35. Mironyuk M., Toloknev K., Maltsev A. Not so obsolete military power in world politics to wage war, to avoid war and (or) to gain recognition. International trends. 2018, Vol. 16, N 2, P. 26–48. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2018.16.2.53.2 (In Russ.)

36. Miskimmon A., O'Loughlin B., Roselle L. Strategic narratives: communication power and the new world order. New York: Routledge, 2013, 240 p.

37. Morgenthau H.J. Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace. New York: A.A. Knopf, 1948, 489 p.

38. Nye J.S. Power and foreign policy. Journal of political power. 2011, Vol. 4, N 1, P. 9–24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/2158379X.2011.555960

39. Poast P. Dyads are dead, long live dyads! The limits of dyadic designs in international relations research. International studies quarterly. 2016, Vol. 60, N 2, P. 369–374. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqw004

40. Polivach A.P., Gudev P.A. The IMEMO sea powers’ rankings 2021. Moscow: IMEMO, 2021, 178 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20542/978-5-9535-0592-5 (In Russ. and Eng.)

41. Polivach A.P., Gudev P.A. The IMEMO sea powers’ rankings 2022 (2.0). Moscow: IMEMO, 2022, 190 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20542/978-5-9535-0609-0 (In Russ. and Eng.)

42. Polivach A.P., Gudev P.A. The IMEMO sea powers’ rankings 2023 (2.0). Moscow: IMEMO, 2023, 198 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.20542/978-5-9535-0619-9 (In Russ. and Eng.)

43. Posen B. The sources of military doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the world wars. New York: Cornell university press, 1984, 281 p.

44. Rauch C. Challenging the power consensus: GDP, CINC, and power transition theory. Security Studies. 2017, Vol. 26, N 4, P. 642–664. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2017.1336389

45. Rider T. J. Understanding arms race onset: Rivalry, threat, and territorial competition. The journal of politics. 2009, Vol. 71, N 2, P. 693–703. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090549

46. Robertson P.E. The real military balance: international comparisons of defense spending. Review of income and wealth. 2022, Vol. 68, N 3, P. 797–818. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12536

47. Saunders R.J., Souva M. Command of the skies: an air power dataset. Conflict management and peace science. 2020, Vol. 37, N 6, P. 735–755. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894219863348

48. Schmidt B.C. Competing realist conceptions of power. Millennium. 2005, Vol. 33, N 3, P. 523–549. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/03058298050330031401

49. Schweller R.L. Deadly imbalances: tripolarity and Hitler's strategy of world conquest. New York: Columbia university press, 1998, 267 p.

50. Singer J.D., Bremer S.A., Stuckey J. Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820-1965. In: Russett B.M. (ed.). Peace, war, and numbers. Beverly Hills, Calif: Sage Publ., 1972, P. 19–48.

51. Souva M. Material military power: A country-year measure of military power, 1865–2019. Journal of peace research. 2023, Vol. 60, N 6, P. 1002–1009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221112970

52. Stefanovich D. Russian hypersonics: what, when and why? New defense order. Strategies. 2020, Vol. 61, N 2, P. 52–55. (In Russ.)

53. Tilly C. Coercion, capital, and European states, AD 990–1990. In: Castañeda E., Schneider C. (eds). Collective violence, contentious politics, and social change. New York: Routledge. 2017, P. 140–154.

54. Vodziansky S.I. Multi-sphere battle as a result of the evolution of joint actions of various types of US armed forces in the 20th-21st centuries. Military thought. 2023, N 8, P. 125–133. (In Russ.)

55. Wagner R.H. War and the state: The theory of international politics. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan press, 2010, 272 p.

56. Waltz K.N. Theory of international politics. London: Addison-Wesley, 1979, 251 p.

57. Wohlforth W.C. Measuring power–and the power of theories. In: Vasquez J.A., Elman C. (eds). Realism and the balancing of power: A new debate. Upper Saddle River (NJ): Prentice Hall, 2003, P. 250–265.

58. Wirtz J.J. How does nuclear deterrence differ from conventional deterrence? Strategic Studies Quarterly. 2018. Vol. 12. N. 4. P. 58-75.

59. Wohlforth W.C. Unipolarity, status competition, and great power war. World politics. 2009, Vol. 61, N 1, P. 28–57. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109000021

60. Zakaria F. From wealth to power: the unusual origins of America's world role. Princeton, NJ: Princeton university press, 1999, 216 p.