Political profiling: applied behavioral analysis in politics
https://doi.org/10.31249/poln/2025.01.05
Abstract
The article is devoted to the study of individual methods of political profiling as a comprehensive tool for analyzing the behavior of political actors in modern conditions. The evolution of this direction from classical psychological profiling of political leaders to modern interdisciplinary methodology integrating methods of psychology, political science and strategic analysis is considered. The key components of political profiling are analyzed, including various methodological approaches, the use of a wide range of primary data and the use of complex analysis models. Special attention is paid to the prospects for the development of political profiling, taking into account mathematical modeling and the reflexive approach formulated by V.A. Lefevre. Methodological challenges and ethical dilemmas in the application of this toolkit, problems of validity of the data used and their interpretation are discussed. The issue of adapting the methods of political profiling for use in other spheres of human activity is touched upon. The study attempts to systematize approaches to political profiling, summarizing some existing methods of analyzing and predicting the behavior of political actors.
About the Author
A. Kulik
https://srccs.su
ANO Scientific Research Center for Corporate Security
Russian Federation
ANO Scientific Research Center for Corporate Security
Russian Federation
Kulik Anna, Director
References
1. Boin A., Hart P., Stern E., Sundelius B. The politics of crisis management: public leadership under pressure. Political psychology. 2008, Vol. 29, N 1, P. 139–143. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9221.2007.00619.x
2. Charteris-Black, J. Politicians and rhetoric: the persuasive power of metaphor London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011, 369 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230319899
3. Dekleva K.B. Leadership analysis and political psychology in the 21st Century. The Journal of the American academy of psychiatry and the law. 2018, Vol. 46, N 3, P. 359–363. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29158/JAAPL.003771-18
4. Feldman O., Valenty L.O. Profiling political leaders: cross-cultural studies of personality and behavior. Westport: Praeger Publishers, 2001, 328 p.
5. Hermann M.G. Assessing leadership style: Trait analysis. In: Post J. M. (ed.). The psychological assessment of political leaders: with profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 2003, P. 178–212.
6. Immelman A. Political psychology and personality. In: Strack S. (ed.). Handbook of personology and psychopathology. Hoboken: John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2005, P. 198–225.
7. Kellerman B., Barilleaux R.H. The president as world leader. New York: St. Martins Press, 2014, 244 p.
8. Kimhi S. The psychological profile of Benjamin Netanyahu using behavior analysis. In: Feldman O., Valenty L.O. (eds). Profiling political leaders: cross-cultural studies of personality and behavior. Connecticut: Bloomsbury Academic, 2001, P. 203–224.
9. Kulik A.V., Kuritsyn A.N., Ivashkevich T.P., Mitroshin K.P., Artemov N.G., Korenkov D.G. Profiling: history, theory, practice. Moscow: Scientific research center for corporate security, 2024, 110 p. (In Russ.)
10. Langer W. The mind of Adolf Hitler: secret report of American intelligence. Kiev: Rumb, 2006, 496 p. (In Russ.)
11. Laver M., Schofield N. Multiparty government: the politics of coalition in Europe. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1998, 308 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.8290
12. Lefevr V.A. Lectures on the theory of reflexive games. Moscow: Kogito-Center, 2009, 218 p. (In Russ.)
13. Moe H., Larsson A.O. Methodological and ethical challenges associated with largescale analyses of online political communication. Nordicom review. 2012, Vol. 33, N 1, P. 117–124. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/nor-2013-0008
14. Lyulchak E.R. Political and psychological analysis of the personalities of the leaders of the «Orange Revolution» Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko. PhD dissertation. Moscow, 2010, 187 p. (In Russ.)
15. McNair B. An introduction to political communication. London: Routledge, 2011, 266 p.
16. Mudde C. Populism: an ideational approach. In: The Oxford handbook of populism. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017, P. 27–47. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803560.013.1
17. Norris P., Curtice J. Getting the message out: a two-step model of the role of the Internet in campaign communication flows during the 2005 British general election. Journal of information technology and politics. 2008, Vol. 4, N 4, P. 3–13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19331680801975359
18. Post J.M. Personality profiles in support of the Camp David summit. Studies in intelligence. 1978, Vol. 23, P. 1–5.
19. Post J.M. Saddam Hussein of Iraq: A political psychological profile. Political psychology. 1991, Vol. 12, N 2, P. 279–289
20. Post J.M., Schneider B.R. Know thy enemy: profiles of adversary leaders and their strategic cultures. Alabama: USAF Counterproliferation Center, 2003, 325 p.
21. Putnam R.D. Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games. International organization. 1988, Vol. 42, N 3, P. 427–460. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300027697
22. Pye L.W. The elusive concept of culture and the vivid reality of personality. In: Renshon S. A., Duckitt J. (eds). Political psychology. London: Macmillan Publishers, 2000, P. 18–32. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230598744_2
23. Rakityansky N.M. Theory and methodology of psychological portraiture of a politician's personality. Doctor’s degree dissertation. Saint Petersburg, 2004, 322 p. (In Russ.)
24. Renshon S.A. Psychoanalytic assessments of character and performance in presidents and candidates: Some observations on theory and method. In: Post J. M. (ed.). The psychological assessment of political leaders: With profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 2003, P. 105–133.
25. Schyns B., Hall R.J., Neves P. (eds). Handbook of methods in leadership research. Cheltenham, Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2017, 480 p.
26. Suedfeld P., Guttieri K., Tetlock P.E. Assessing integrative complexity at a distance: Archival analysis of thinking and decision making. In: Post J. M. (ed.). The psychological assessment of political leaders: With profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 2003, P. 246–270.
27. Valenty L.O., Feldman O. Political leadership for the New Century: personality and behavior among American leaders. Westport: Praeger Publishers, 2002, 296 p.
28. Walker J. (ed.). Studies in intelligence. 2006, Vol. 23, N 1, 83 p.
29. Weintraub W. Verbal behavior and personality assessment. In: Post J.M. (ed.). The psychological assessment of political leaders: with profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 2003, P. 137–152.
30. Winter D.G. Measuring the motives of political actors at a distance. In: Post J.M. (ed.). The psychological assessment of political leaders: with profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 2003, P. 153–177.
31. Zimmer M. “But the data is already public”: On the ethics of research in Facebook. Ethics and information technology. 2010, Vol. 12, N 4, P. 313–325. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-010-9227-5
Review
Views:
223
Email this article 
Post a Comment 