Prediction markets: forecasting electoral outcomes of Russian elections without public opinion polls
https://doi.org/10.31249/poln/2019.01.03
Abstract
In 2016 and 2018 Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) launched the first in Russia electoral prediction market to forecast the election outcome for the State Duma and President. The paper compares effectiveness of this market to forecasts based on public opinion polls. It demonstrates that prediction markets performed quite well at the national level but are not efficient enough at the regional level where there are no publicly available polls.
About the Author
Yulia Baskakova
Institute of Sociology of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Баскакова Ю.М. Опыт прогнозирования итогов выборов с применением экспертных оценок // Социологические исследования. - М., 2013. - № 1. - С. 42-51.
2. Баскакова Ю.М. Приемы и методы политического прогнозирования в 2016-2018 гг. // Выборы на фоне Крыма: Электоральный цикл 2016-2018 и перспективы политического транзита / Под ред. В. Федорова. - М., 2018. - [в печати].
3. Хайек Ф. Использование знаний в обществе. Индивидуализм и экономический порядок. - М.: Изограф, 2000. - 256 с.
4. Шуровьески Д. Мудрость толпы. - М.: Вильямс, 2007. - 304 с.
5. Berg J., Nelson F., Rietz T. Prediction market accuracy in the long run // International journal of forecasting. - Medford, Massachusetts, 2008. - Vol. 24, N 2. - P. 285-300.
6. Deimer S., Poblete J. Real-money vs. play-money forecasting accuracy // Journal of prediction markets. - Buckingham, 2011. - N 4. - P. 21-58. - Mode of access: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292615991_Political_markets (Accessed: 06.11.2018.)
7. Erikson R., Wlezien Ch. Are political markets really superior to polls as election predictors? // Public opinion quarterly. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press, 2008. - Vol. 72. - P. 19-21.
8. Rhode P., Strumpf K. The long history of political betting markets: An international perspective // Oxford handbook on the economics of gambling / V. Leigthon, D. Siegel (eds). - Oxford: Oxford univ. press, 2013. - P. 560-587.
9. Graefe A. Political markets // SAGE Handbook of electoral behaviour. - Sage, UK, 2016. - Mode of access: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292615991_Political_markets (Accessed: 06.11.2018.)
10. Graefe A. Prediction market performance in the 2016 U.S. presidential election // Foresight: The international journal of applied forecasting. - Medford, MA, 2017. - N 45. - P. 38-42.
11. Polls versus prediction markets. Who said Brexit was a surprise? // Economist. - L., 2016. - Jun. 24th. - Mode of access: https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/ 2016/06/polls-versus-prediction-markets (Accessed: 06.11.2018.)
12. Prediction markets: Does money matter? / Servan-Schreiber E., Wolfers J., Pennock D., Galebach D. // Electronic markets. - Leipzig, 2014. - Vol. 14, N 3. - P. 243-251.
13. Rothschild D. Forecasting elections: Comparing prediction markets, polls, and their biases // Public opinion quarterly. - Oxford: Oxford univ. press, 2009. - Vol. 73, N 5. - P. 895-916.
14. Rothschild D., Sethi R. Wishful thinking, manipulation, and the wisdom of crowds: Evidence from a political betting market // Research Gate. - 2016. - Mode of access: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292615991_Political_markets (Accessed: 06.11.2018.)
15. The journal of prediction markets. - Mode of access: http://www.ubplj.org/index.php/jpm (Accessed: 06.11.2018.)
Review
Views:
105
Email this article 
Post a Comment 