Reproduction of electoral voting patterns in the subnational elections

Abstract

The article examines the stability of electoral support of political parties and candidates on subnational elections in Moscow. This study investigates the dynamic of voter turnout on different levels and types of elections, as well as the stability of the reproduction of electoral voting patterns based on a comparative analysis of federal, regional and municipal campaigns. The research covers the elections which took place between 2003-2018 in Moscow. The results of research suggest that the drop of voter turnout on subnational level of elections occurs due to a decrease of electoral support of «United Russia». The study also shows that opposition mobilization could be effective on the subnational level. Basically, the analysis showed that campaigns of mayoral election can be described by widespread pro-government mobilization in the absence of strong competitors to incumbent, or by consolidating the electorate of systemic and non-systemic opposition around an active opposition leader. Consequently, electoral authoritarianism is not able to restrain the protest mobilization in the existence of consolidation leader on the mayoral elections.