Reasons for Alternative für Deutschland’s electoral success
https://doi.org/10.31249/poln/2019.02.11
Abstract
The article focuses on the reasons for Alternative for Germany electoral gains after 2015 migrant crisis and at the 2017 Bundestag elections. The author used the funnel of causality to interpret electoral behavior in Germany. Five German states (Lower Saxony, Baden-Württemberg, Hessen, Saxony and Bavaria) are compared based on historical development, political culture and citizens’ attitudes towards «the other». It is emphasized that some Germans have negative attitudes towards Muslim-migrants which are reflected in their electoral behavior. Statistics shows correlation between Muslim migration and AfD growth, economic growth within the states and xenophobic attacks against them. The reasons for the Russian Germans to vote for AfD (which sees the Russian Germans as the core electorate) are outlined. The author concludes that disagreements within the CDU party, Muslim migration, the Germans’ desire to preserve their identity and the Russian Germans’ longing for a comprehensive integration in the German society advances AfD electoral success.
Keywords
миграционный кризис,
«Альтернатива для Германии»,
ХДС,
этнокультурное взаимодействие,
федеративные земли Германии,
электоральное поведение,
«воронка причинности»,
migrant crisis,
Alternative for Germany,
CDU,
ethnocultural interaction,
federal states,
electoral behavior,
funnel of causality
About the Author
E. A. Zakharova
Moscow State Institute of International Relations
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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