Influence of program transformations of green parties on participation in government coalitions in Western and Northern European countries

Emerged in the 1980 s as a type of «niche» party, the Greens have now become significant political players in Western and Northern Europe. They are increasing their representation in national parliaments and quite often participate in coalition governments. To increase their chances of entering government, they have an incentive to broaden their political agenda to attract new voters. This article asks how the program transformation of the Greens affects their participation in government coalitions in Western and Northern European countries. The study is based on the Manifesto Project Main Dataset and is conducted by logistic regression analysis. Along with the transformation of the Greens' programs, the following factors derived from the classical theories of government coalition formation are tested: the political weight of the party in the national parliament and the ideological proximity of coalition partners. By confirming the significance of these factors, the study allows us to conclude that the expansion of the Greens' political agenda, i.e. the reduction of the share of environmental issues in the electoral program compared to the previous electoral cycle, increases their chances of being included in the government coalition. Thus, the Greens demonstrate pragmatism by adapting to the political agenda of potential coalition partners.

1. Adams R. Governance and the Financial Crisis. International review of finance. 2012, N 12 (1), P. 7–38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2011.01147.x

2. Anderson C., Guillory C. Political institutions and satisfaction with democracy: A cross-national analysis of consensus and majoritarian systems. American political science review. 1997, N 91 (1), P. 66‒81. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2952259

3. Amiantova I.S. Institutional and value foundations of coalition politics in modern states. Representative power – XXI century: legislation, comments, problems. 2010, N 7–8, P. 65–70. (In Russ.)

4. Artyushin S.M. Political coalitions: problems of theory and regional practice. News of the Herzen state pedagogical university postgraduate notebooks. 2006, N 4, P. 8–17. (In Russ.)

5. Batory A., Sitter N. Cleavages, competition and coalition-building: agrarian parties and the European question in Western and East Central Europe. European journal of political research. 2004, N 43 (4), P. 523–546. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2004.00164. x. 2004

6. Bischof D. Towards a renewal of the niche party concept: parties, market shares and condensed offers. Party politics. 2015, N 23 (3), P. 220–235. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068815588259

7. De Swaan A. An empirical model of coalition formation as an n-person game of policy distance minimization. In: Groenings S., Kelley E., Leiserson M. (eds). The study of coalition behavior. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970, P. 424–444.

8. De Winter L. The volksunie. In: Tronconi В., Elias А. (eds). From protest to power: Autonomist parties and the challenges of representation. Wien: Braumueller, 2011, P. 27–49.

9. Downs A. An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper & Row, 1957, 310 p.

10. Dolezal M. Exploring the stabilization of a political force: the social and attitudinal basis of Green Parties in the age of globalization. West European politics. 2010, N 33, P. 534–552. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402381003654569

11. Dumont P., Falcó-Gimeno A., Indridason I., Bischof D. Pieces of the puzzle? Coalition formation and tangential preferences. West European politics. 2024, N 47 (1), P. 61–87. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2234236

12. Elias A., Tronconi F. From protest to power: Autonomist parties in government. Party politics. 2011, N 17 (4), P. 505–524. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068811400528

13. Ezrow L., Adams J., Clark M., Glasgow G. Are niche parties fundamentally different from mainstream parties? The causes and electoral consequences of Western European parties's policy shifts. American journal of political science. 2006, N 50 (3), P. 513–529. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00199.x

14. Ezrow L., De Vries C.E., Steenbergen M.R., Edwards E.E. Mean voter representation and partisan constituency representation: do parties respond to the mean voter position or to their supporters? Party politics. 2010, N 17 (3), P. 275–301. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068810372100

15. Gomez-Reino M. Ethnicity and nationalism in Italian politics inventing the Padania: Lega Nord and the northern question. Aldershot: Ashgate, 2002, 248 p.

16. Khutkyy D. Pirate Parties: The social movements of electronic democracy. Journal of comparative politics. 2019, N 12 (2), P. 49–68.

17. Lucardie P. Animalism: a nascent ideology? Exploring the ideas of animal advocacy parties. Journal of political ideologies. 2020, N 25, P. 212–227.

18. Martin L., Stevenson R. The conditional impact of incumbency on government formation. American political science review. 2010, N 104 (3), P. 503‒518.

19. Meguid B. Competition between unequals: the role of mainstream party strategy in niche party success. American political science review. 2005, N 99 (3), P. 347–359. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055405051701

20. Meguid B. Adaptation or inflexibility? Niche party responsiveness to policy competition, with evidence from regionalist parties. European journal of political research. 2023, N 62 (2), P. 355–376. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12540

21. Meyer T., Miller B. The niche party concept and its measurement. Party politics. 2013, N 21 (2), P. 259–271. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068812472582

22. Mitchell P., Nyblade B. Government formation and cabinet type in parliamentary democracies. In: Strøm K., Müller W., Bergman. T. (eds). Cabinets and coalition bargaining: the democractic life cycle in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford university press, 2008, P. 201‒236.

23. Mudde C. The single-issue party thesis: extreme right parties and the immigration issue. West European politics. 1999, N 22 (3), P. 182–197. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402389908425321

24. Muller-Rommel F. Ethnoregionalist parties in Western Europe. In: De Winter L., Tursan H. (eds). Regionalist Parties in Western Europe. London, New York: Routledge, 1998, P. 17–27.

25. Mützenich R. Germany: the first steps of a grand coalition. World economy and international relations. 2006, N 5, P. 19–27. (In Russ.)

26. Riker W. The theory of political coalitions. New Haven: Yale university press, 1962, 312 p.

27. Rovny J., Polk J. Still blurry? Economic salience, position and voting for radical right parties in Western Europe. European journal of political research. 2020, N 59 (2), P. 248–268. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12356

28. Schumacher G., de Vries C.E., Vis B. Why do parties change position? Party organization

29. and environmental incentives. The journal of politics. 2013, N 75 (2), P. 464–477. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022381613000145

30. Sidorov V.V. Parliamentary systems as an environment for the formation of coalitions Kazan. Social and humanitarian bulletin. 2015, N 2 (15), P. 48–53. (In Russ.)

31. Sidorov V.V. Theories of coalition formation in foreign political science. Political science (RU). 2014, N 1, P. 211–222. (In Russ.)

32. Spoon J., Williams C. Environmental chauvinism? Explaining issue expansion among non-mainstream parties. Party politics. 2022, N 29, P. 1077–1108.

33. Taggart P.A touchstone of dissent: euroscepticism in contemporary Western European party systems. European Journal of political research. 1998, N 33 (3), P. 363–388. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475–6765.00387.

34. Wagner M. Defining and measuring niche parties. Party politics. 2012, N 18 (6), P. 845–864. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068810393267

35. Warwick P. Government survival in parliamentary democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge university press, 1994, 182 p.

36. Zons G. How programmatic profiles of niche parties affect their electoral performance. West European politics. 2016, N 39 (6), P. 1205–1229. DOI:10.1080/01402382.2016.1156298