Dynamics of mental worldview models: concept and method of scenario forecasting

The article is devoted to the development of the concept of the dynamics of mental worldview models and the proposal of a corresponding forecasting method. A brief overview of the emergence of the concept of worldview is given and the main concepts describing the patterns of dynamic states of mental models from the standpoint of various theoretical approaches are analyzed. The concept of the dynamics of worldview mental models is proposed, its methodological basis is the representative theory of thinking used in cognitive philosophy and cognitive psychology. To study the dynamic states of worldview models, it was also necessary to substantiate the concept of the cognitive-value mechanism of worldview models, explaining the ways of cognition of the world and the interaction of consciousness with the social environment. Value elements of the structure of worldview models – ideological attitudes, beliefs, values – determine the content of views on the world. Cognitive elements, including concepts, ideologemes, narratives, in mental models determine the schemes of cognition. It is shown how cognitions – cognitive elements, or mental processes of information processing: reception (perception), knowledge, their representation (idea), memory – act in the cognitive process linking consciousness with the social environment. The concept of the dynamics of ideological mental models was used to build scenarios. The dynamics of mental ideological models is a process of functional interaction of value and cognitive elements of models, which can be expressed and recorded through a set of variables that determine the nature, direction and pace of dynamic processes. The empirical part of the study describes the process of the dynamics of ideological models of Russians using three scenarios as an example: the status quo, the “civilizational choice” and the “existential choice”. Practical recommendations for the formation of political strategies for managing ideological processes are given.

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