Measuring and modeling the cohesion effect in Russian-language social media after the start of the special military operation: an analysis of social motivations

This study is devoted to the examination and measurement of cohesion effects in the context of a political crisis. Traditionally, the process of social solidification has been defined either as the unification of the entire society during periods of exogenous shocks or as the intergroup cohesion of initially close communities. We hypothesize that these types of cohesion are interrelated and exhibit common developmental trends in pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. An important component of the study is the proposed approach to measuring group consolidation through network characteristics. Based on data from over 1,000 political Telegram channels, using machine learning and network analysis methods, we examined the dynamics of group consolidation during the four weeks before the Special Military Operation and the four weeks following it in three networks: one based on links between political channels, and two others constructed around social motivations of anger and belief in success. To assess the cohesion effect, key indicators of community partitioning – modularity and the number of communities – were used. It was found that the link-based network (baseline scenario) reflects a short-term effect of overall group cohesion, but in the long term, the effect of group consolidation diminishes. In the network built around anger-driven social motivation, communities, on the contrary, became more structured after the start of the military operation, indicating cohesion only among initially close channels. The motivation of belief in success does not manifest before the crisis but influences social solidification in the long term. The results provide deeper insights into the mechanisms of social community formation during periods of political instability and their network structures. The study contributes to understanding how digital platforms shape political behavior.

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