After the elections: scenarios of forming government coalitions

The article deals with changes in the processes of formation of government coalitions in 16 European countries during the two recent decades (4 most recent cycles of parliamentary elections). The author states that these processes become more complicated: many party systems get fragmented, the median size of the coalition tends to decline, coalitions do not enjoy majority support in parliament more frequently (particularly in Nordic countries). Beside quantitative indicators, formation of coalitions is further complicated by growing influence of populist parties, which are ideologically too far from mainstream ones that normally form governments. The article considers different scenarios of coalition formation. Participation of populist in governing coalitions becomes a frequent phenomenon. Populists’ interaction with “systemic” parties follows one of the three scenarios, from complete (or nearly complete) integration into mainstream (e.g., Switzerland, Italy, Greece) to total non-integration (right-wing populists in Germany, France, Spain, Belgium) and “negative integration”, when right-wing populists are reluctantly admitted into coalition, often with subsequent conflicts (Austria, the Netherlands). Inclusion of populist parties into mainstream party systems is a controversial process, with differing results in different contexts. These processes continue to evolve, as the popularity of populist parties (including the “non-integration” type) remains high in a number of countries. The author concludes that the principal factor which causes complications in formation of governing coalitions is structural in nature: it consists of shifts in the balance of political forces – both quantitative (i.e., fragmentation of party systems) and qualitative (growth of non-systemic parties). As for institutional changes, it exists but in moderate format, namely, diversification of scenarios and tactics of coalition formation.

1. Bergman T., Bäck H., Hellström J. (eds). Coalition governance in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford university press, 2021, 758 p.

2. Bunin I.M. Elections of Macron or the choice of France. Moscow: School of civic education publishers, 2018, 198 p. (In Russ.)

3. Colomer J. Political institutions: democracy and social choice. Oxford: Oxford university press, 2001, 256 p.

4. Gunther R., Diamond L. Species of political parties. Party politics. 2009, Vol. 9, N 2, P. 167–199.

5. Inglehart R. The silent revolution in Europe: intergenerational change in post-industrial societies. American political science review. 1971, N 65 (4), P. 991–1017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1953494

6. Inglehart R. The Silent revolution: changing values and political styles among Western publics. Princeton: Princeton university press, 1977, 496 p.

7. Hooghe L., Marks G. Cleavage theory meets Europe’s crises: Lipset, Rokkan, and the transnational cleavage. Journal of European public policy. 2018, Vol. 25, P. 109–135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1310279

8. Katsambekis G. Left-wing populism in the European Periphery: the case of SYRIZA. Journal of political ideologies. 2014, N 19 (2), P. 119–142. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13569317.2014.909266

9. Khenkin S.M. Vox: the Spanish variation of radical right party in contemporary Europe. World economy and international relations. 2021, Vol. 65, N 11, P. 69–78. (In Russ.)

10. Kitchcelt H. Party systems. In: Boix C., Stokes S. (eds). The Oxford handbook of comparative politics. Oxford: Oxford university press, 2007, P. 522–554.

11. Lijphart A. Democracy in plural societies: a comparative exploration. New Haven, 1977, 248 p.

12. Makarenko B.I. Fragmentation of European party systems: prerequsities, scenarios, sequences. World economy and international relations. 2022, Vol. 66, N 12, P. 16–26. (In Russ.)

13. Lipset S. M., Rokkan S. Party systems and voter alignments: cross-national perspectives. New York: The Free press, 1967, 554 p

14. Mudde C. The populist zeitgeist. Government and opposition. 2004, Vol. 39, N 4, P. 541–563. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x

15. Mudde C. Populist radical right parties in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge university press, 2007, 385 p.

16. Mudde C. SYRIZA: The failure of the populist promise. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017, 98 p.

17. Mudde C. On extremism and democracy in Europe. London: Routledge, 2016, 163 p.

18. Riker W.H. The theory of political coalitions. New Haven, 1962, 300 p.

19. Sartori G. Parties and party systems. A framework for analysis. New York: Cambridge university press, 1976, Vol. 1, 368 p.

20. Sartori G. Party types, organisation and functions. West European politics. 2005, Vol. 28, N 1, P. 5–32. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0140238042000334268

21. Shugart M., Carey J. Presidents and assemblies: constitutional design and electoral dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge university press, 1992, 316 p.

22. Siaroff A. Comparative European party systems: an analysis of parliamentary elections since 1945. London: Routledge, 2019, 568 p.

23. Stokes D.E. Spatial models of party competition. The American political science review. 1963, N 57 (2), P. 372–373. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1952828

24. Strøm K. Minority government and majority rule. Cambridge: Cambridge university press, 1990, 293 p.

25. Strøm K., Müller W.C., Bergman T. (eds). Delegation and accountability in parliamentary democracies. Oxford: Oxford university press, 2003, 764 p.

26. Strøm K., Müller W.C., Bergman T. (eds). Cabinets and coalition bargaining: the democratic life cycle in Western Europe. Oxford: Oxford university press, 2008, 443 p.

27. Vachudova M.A. Populism, democracy, and party system change in Europe. Annual review of political science. 2021, N 24, P. 471–498.

28. Zulianello M. The integration of populist parties in Europe. In: Manucci L. (ed.). The populism interviews. London: Routledge, 2022, P. 34–39.

29. Zulianello M. Varieties of populist parties and party systems in Europe: From state-of-the-art to the application of a novel classification scheme to 66 parties in 33 countries. Government and opposition. 2020, N 55 (2), P. 327–347. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2019.21