Socio-political cleavages in France during 2022–2024 electoral campaigns

The article focuses on electoral cleavages in France following the 2024 European parliament elections and the National Assembly early elections in comparison to 2022 presidential and parliament elections. The author uses Lipset-Rokkan cleavages theory to analyze the existing cleavages on the French electoral map and their transformations before and after 2024 European Parliament elections. The author looks into not only social cleavages, but also their transformation into political ones and how these cleavages can be seen within socio-territorial structure of the French departments. Spatial econometric analyses show the clusters of support for major French parties / coalitions across 96 departments, multivariate explanatory data analysis shows correlation between party support and socio-economic characteristics of each department. Right-wing parties got support in the north-eastern departments, and in the south-eastern ones. Macron’s coalition is supported by the north-western departments, while the left parties gained support in the industrial departments and in the capital region. Thus, urban-rural cleavage is present today on the electoral map of France. Besides, France has two types of rural areas; the so-called bocage – the hedgerow countryside of northwestern part of France (e.g. Brittany and Normandy), and campagne – the open-field plains and plateaus (e.g. in Lorraine or Province). The increase in inequality and high poverty rates in 2023 accelerate the cleavages. The author emphasizes the differences between the electoral support for the right and the left parties at the European and national level, which bring to the new cleavage theory focusing on values and GAL/TAN cleavage.

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