Тропа насилия: ловушка Гоббса и механизмы эскалации в столкновениях между протестующими и полицией

Статья посвящена концептуализации эскалации протестного и полицейского насилия в ходе уличных акций. В качестве теоретической рамки используется модель ловушки Гоббса, описывающая ситуацию, при которой стороны конфликта действуют в условиях взаимного недоверия, ожидают худшего сценария и предпринимают упреждающие действия, тем самым повышая вероятность насильственного столкновения, а также формируя спираль насилия. На примере протестов в Швейцарии, Исландии и Финляндии демонстрируется, что резкая эскалация возможна даже в странах с высоким уровнем доверия к полиции, устойчивым правопорядком и низким уровнем политического насилия. В статье уточняется различие между протестным и полицейским насилием, а также подчеркивается их асимметричный характер. Автор предлагает дополнить пазл ловушки Гоббса требуются дополнительные детали в виде механизмов эскалации насилия. Для этого выделяются три механизма эскалации со стороны государства и полиции: чрезвычайность, маргинализация и безопасность. Им соответствуют ответные механизмы со стороны протестующих: защитная мобилизация, снижение издержек насилия и радикализация флангов. В совокупности они образуют тропу насилия – последовательную модель перехода от неопределенности намерений к определению угрозы, превентивному действию, ответной мобилизации, подтверждению исходного прогноза, силовому вмешательству и закреплению опыта столкновения.

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