When Elections Get Out of Hand? Unintended Electoral Outcomes in the Competitive Authoritarian Regimes
Abstract
The author analyses unintended or unanticipated outcomes of elections in the competitive authoritarian regimes. There is a distinction between four types of outcomes drawing on two dimensions - electoral results (victory or failure) and absence or presence of the mass protests immediately after elections. The non-parametric multivariate regression analysis of 349 cases from 1990 to 2011 allows calculating the statistical probabilities of the occurrence of particular type of unintended outcomes relative to pro-hegemonic scenario.
About the Authors
Маргарита Завадская
Европейский университет во Флоренции (European University Institute); Европейский университет в Санкт-Петербурге
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
M. . Zavadskaya
Russian Federation
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