КОГДА ВЫБОРЫ ВЫХОДЯТ ИЗ-ПОД КОНТРОЛЯ? НЕПРЕДНАМЕРЕННЫЕ ЭЛЕКТОРАЛЬНЫЕ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ В СОРЕВНОВАТЕЛЬНЫХ АВТОРИТАРНЫХ РЕЖИМАХ
Аннотация
В статье анализируются непреднамеренные последствия выборов в условиях соревновательных авторитарных режимов. На основании двух измерений - электоральная победа или поражение и наличие массовых протестов - автор выделяет и анализирует четыре теоретически возможных исхода выборов в подобных режимах. В статье представлены результаты количественного анализа 349 выборов, состоявшихся в период с 1990 по 2011 г. в странах соревновательного авторитаризма. Исследование позволяет рассчитывать вероятность реализации того или иного типа непреднамеренных электоральных последствий.
Об авторах
Маргарита Андреевна Завадская
Европейский университет во Флоренции (European University Institute); Европейский университет в Санкт-Петербурге
Россия
Россия
M. Zavadskaya
Россия
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