Mortality from SARS-CoV-2: does the type of political regime matter?
https://doi.org/10.31249/poln/2022.02.01
Abstract
The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus caused the COVID-19 pandemic, which has become a global problem since the spring of 2020. Scientists have set a goal to determine the factors affecting its spread and mortality. Most of the works were devoted to the study of demographic, social and economic determinants. Little attention was paid to political factors. An analysis of the scientific literature shows that there is a theory of «effective autocracy» in the academic environment. The purpose of this article is to assess the effectiveness of political regimes (democracies and autocracies) in the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. To test the thesis of «effective autocracy», we collected data on 96 countries and built two regression models. As a result of the study, we came to the conclusion that the mortality rate from coronavirus is lower in autocracies than in democracies, which confirms the theory. Statistical calculations show that with an increase of 1 point in autocracies, mortality decreases by 0,28 people (per 1000 population). The article emphasizes that this is typical for the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. Calculations based on more recent data suggest that the mortality rate from coronavirus is lower in more democratic states in the medium term: with an increase in the number of democratic states by 1 point, mortality falls by 0,06 people (per 1000 population). The author notes that this is due to both a more developed health care system in more democratic countries and a purposeful policy of autocracies to underestimate statistical data on mortality from SARS-CoV-2. The author emphasizes that the type of political regime matters only in one third of cases.
Keywords
pandemic,
COVID-19,
2019-nCoV,
SARS-CoV-2,
coronavirus,
political regimes,
authoritarianism,
democracy
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