Institutions of political rating: origins, problems and prospects

The article is devoted to the role of political risk in the modern world and the necessity to correlate methods and models of assessment and forecasting to the new challenges of the time. In the article are examined the conditions of transit from the conceptual understanding of the risk to the risk of financial operations and property/money losses and from the risk of nationalization to a new multiple risk which is closely correlated to political decisions and individuals. There is conducted a comparative analysis of the main existing risk assessment models. The author also makes an attempt to assess the compliance of these models to the present challenges in the context of increasingly complex and interdependent relations of actors, including business, states, international institutions, transnational companies and society. The article explores the exclusive and independent role of political risk that exists in correlation with the economic, operational and reputational risks produced by individuals in the context of the rapid spread information. The article proves the independent role of political risk that has no subordinate position to the economic component. The author provides examples of the leading role of political risks in determination of business strategy and management decisions. There are also examined several approaches to the analysis of political risks at the stage of concept genesis and in the context of both globalization and regionalization of international relations. The author considers rating agencies as an important instrument of stability in the relationship between business and the state and to makes an attempt to identify the shortcomings that are found in their activities and do not meet modern realities. The author comes to the conclusion that it is necessary to revise not only the methodology for assessing and predicting political risks, but also the conceptual understanding of the institutional environment in which the roles of the state, business and society have changed.

1. Бек У. Общество риска. На пути к другому модерну. М.: Прогресс-Традиция, 2000. 384 c. EDN: RAYTKJ

2. Богатуров А.Д., Данилин И.В., Байков А.А. Экономическая политология. Отношения бизнеса с государством и обществом / под ред. А.Д. Богатурова. М.: Аспект-Пресс, 2012. 240 с.

3. Карминский А.М. Кредитные рейтинги и их моделирование / под ред. Л.И. Кузнецовой. М.: Издательский дом Высшей школы экономики, 2015. 304 с. EDN: XFDQGV

4. Милль Дж. С. Основы политической экономии / пер. с англ., общ. ред. А.Г. Милейковского. М.: Прогресс, 1980. Т. 1. 495 с.

5. Найт Ф.Х. Риск, неопределенность и прибыль. М.: Дело, 2003. 360 с.

6. Семененко И.С. Дилеммы национальной идентичности: политические риски и социальные приобретения // Полис. Политические исследования. 2009. № 6. C. 8-23. EDN: KXDRSN

7. Соколов И.М. Истоки и тенденции изучения политических рисков в мире // Вестник Волгоградского государственного университета. 2009. № 2. С. 141-145.

8. Стиглиц Дж. Крутое пике. Америка и новый экономический порядок после глобального кризиса / под ред. В. Ильина. М.: Эксмо, 2011. 512 c.

9. Шмитт К. Понятие политического // Вопросы социологии. 1992. № 1. С. 35-67.

10. Штомпка П. Социология социальных изменений / под ред. В.А. Ядова. М.: Аспект-Пресс, 1996. 414 с.

11. Яницкий О.Н. Социология риска. Ключевые идеи // Мир России. 2003. № 1. С. 3-35. EDN: CQTRBS

12. Coplin W., O'Leary M., Vasquez J. Everyman's Prince: A guide to understanding your political problems. North Scituate (Mass.): Duxbury press, 1976. 210 p.

13. Giddens A. The Consequences of modernity. Oxford: Polity press, 1991. 186 p.

14. Grosse R. International business and government relations in the 21 st century. Cambridge: Cambridge press, 2005. 542 p.

15. Kobrin S.J. Political risk: a review and reconsideration // Journal of international business studies. 1979. Vol. 10, N 1. P. 67-80. DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490631

16. Luhmann N. Risk: A sociological theory. Berlin; N.Y.: de Gruyter, 1993. 236 p.

17. Rice C., Zegart A. Political risk. How business and organizations can anticipate global insecurity. N.Y.: Twelve, 2018. 690 p.

18. MacAleer M.J., Hoti S. An empirical assessment of country risk ratings and associated models // Journal of economic surveys. 2004. Vol. 18, N 4. P. 539-588. DOI: 10.1111/j.0950-0804.2004.00230.x

19. Schwartz P. The art of the long view. Planning for the future in an uncertain world. N.Y.: Currency Doubleday, 1996. 272 p.