Emotional curves of the populist communication in Donald Trump’s presidential campaigning

The article defines populism within the framework of the emotional approach as a combination of anger towards the “corrupt elites” and fear for the “pure people”. Populists appeal to fear by constructing threats and dangers to the people, including those related to economic well-being and security. In turn, anger objectifies blame for the perceived threats by accusing the elites and shifting the responsibility towards them for policy failures. Using the 2024 presidential election as a case study, the article identifies the role of affective factors in electoral behavior in the United States. It attempts to determine whether a populist equilibrium exists between the emotional “supply” offered by the populist leader Donald Trump and the emotional “demand” of the electorate. Using quantitative analysis of public opinion survey data (ANES), the authors test and confirm the hypotheses regarding the connection between respondents’ emotions (namely fear and anger) toward how well things are going on in the country and their decision to support a particular candidate (either Trump or Harris) in the election. This correlation remained statistically significant after a number of control variables and their combinations were included.

A quantitative content analysis of emotions in eight rally speeches delivered by Trump in swing states reveals that the rhetoric of anger dominated over the rhetoric of fear and was accompanied by praise of past achievements and promises of future accomplishments. Critical discourse analysis identified Trump’s discursive strategies eliciting fear, anger, and hope for a better future. The article demonstrates that Trump’s rhetoric appealed to the core sentiments of his potential electorate, intensifying feelings of fear and anger among the audience. References to past achievements generated admiration and reinforced trust in the candidate’s future policies. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that the peculiar nature of populism within the conditions of contemporary electoral competitiveness lies in the political leader’s ability to leverage the emotional dimension of politics. By appealing to citizens’ feelings of fear and anger while fueling them with self-praise, populists are able to mobilize an angry and anxious protest electorate. 

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