Эмпирическая модель анализа динамики алгоритмизации (технологии искусственного интеллекта) в сфере обеспечения безопасности на примере США

Как меняется система безопасности государства под влиянием технологии искусственного интеллекта (ИИ)? В статье предлагается эмпирическая модель оценивания системы безопасности государства (на примере США) на основе показателя согласованности (консистентности) безопасности, измеряющего то, как государство оценивает угрозы (показатель угроз), а также наличный уровень возможностей для их отражения (показатель возможностей) применительно к технологиям искусственного интеллекта. Показатель согласованности (консистентности) безопасности, по сути, описывает то, как государство способно оценивать угрозы (показатель угроз), и отвечает на вопрос, обладает ли государство необходимым уровнем возможностей для их отражения (показатель возможностей). Разработанная модель (а также концептуализация технологии искусственного интеллекта в контексте сферы обеспечения безопасности) предоставляет свидетельства того, «как» происходят изменения в сфере обеспечения безопасности при помощи эмпирической модели, и представляет собой инструмент для изучения соответствующих изменений и оценки системы обеспечения безопасности государства. Необходимо обозначить ограничение исследования: мы не рассматриваем непосредственные военные приложения в области автоматизации и алгоритмизации (технологии искусственного интеллекта). Валидизация представленной эмпирической модели проводилась на кейсе США (анализу подлежат восемь временных промежутков, а именно: 1999, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019 гг.). Примечательно то, как меняются с развитием самой технологии «заинтересованность» государства и определение угроз, а также стремительный рост возможностей технологии искусственного интеллекта (в годы максимального прогресса в вычислительных мощностях и появления новых алгоритмов), а с 2012 г. динамика - более поступательная, так как все новые и новые «открытия» имеют скорее не революционный, а эволюционный характер. Отличительной чертой модели является ее масштабируемость, которая выражается в возможности замены технологии искусственного интеллекта на любой другой тип цифровых технологий. В результате появляется возможность прослеживать динамику изменений системы безопасности государства, но уже применительно к иным технологиям, а затем проводить сравнительный анализ стран.

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