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No 4 (2022): Новая политическая география

СОСТОЯНИЕ ДИСЦИПЛИНЫ

18-40 162
Abstract

The issue of the article is to acquaint researchers with new methods of studying geopolitics on a strict quantitative scientifically grounded basis. The relevance of this topic is confirmed by the general growth of interest in geopolitical topics in scientific publications, but for the most part these publications are characterized by speculative argumentation and a superficial vision of geographic space. The review article intends to systematize modern theoretical knowledge about geopolitics, to present domestic methodological developments in this area. In the 1990 s, there was a search for conceptual schemes for a quantitative or qualitative analysis of geopolitical relations and acquaintance with foreign trends in geopolitics and methods of argumentation. Since the 2000 s in the latest methodology of geopolitics, 4 generalized directions are distinguished: geopolitics in geographical interpretation, which considers geopolitical processes through the prism of objective spatial data, and uses the geographic scientific base and theories of domestic economic and theoretical geography in the argument, the second is the geo-economic branch, which is based on the achievements of economic science in the mathematization of scientific knowledge, the third is critical geopolitics, which implies a quantitative and qualitative analysis of political discourse, geopolitical images and ideas about the place of a country (region) in the world, the fourth is geopolitical mathematical modeling. In general, the identified areas are not opposed to each other, but have pronounced accents and their own pool of studies, recognized as «classical», included in the foundation of scientific constructions, and there is also an interpenetration and unification of methods for quantitative analysis of geopolitical studies. The article is addressed in order to consolidate knowledge about geopolitics, to interpenetrate the developed methods in this area and stimulate interdisciplinary approaches.

41-66 145
Abstract

The article explores the issues of methodology for identifying spatial political forms, considering the centrality of the state as an actual dominant of the world political space, and as the master-category of political analysis. The scarcity of political theory in this direction has a protracted character, which determines the need to search for tools to identify the elemental composition of the political space and the fundamental possibilities of its structuring. Analysis discovers the methodological insufficiency of empirically oriented approaches to solve the problem of finding structural alternatives to the state, associated with reliance on analytical scaling. Within this technic the conclusions regarding the main directions in the transformation of the political space acquire a competing character, not being contradictory in themselves, but only reflecting different sides of reality. The conceptual obstacle to this strategy is the standard idea for modern political theory idea of political space that is a vertically ordered leveled structure. A research strategy based on theoretical modeling of the possibilities of structuring political space is proposed. An approach employs the analysis of the quality of spatial elements constituting the spatial form of politics. It is shown that the possibility of this strategy is deeply rooted in the traditions of the theory of state and law, however, has not been properly developed. Within the framework of the proposed agenda, the state is considered as a spatial form based on a special strategy of territorialization. The influence of the insular territoriality on the social and power spatial dimensions of the state is investigated; the spatial uniqueness of state political form is shown; and, based on the possibilities of acquiring other systemic qualities by constitutive elements and the quality of their assembly into a functional unity, alternative forms are proposed.

67-89 186
Abstract

The forms, political and other factors of the dynamism of spatial boundaries are considered in the light of modern approaches in border studies. One of borders' paradoxes lies in their inertia and at the same time high and increasing dynamism. It led to the creation of the concept of bordering, that is, the constant change in the functions and regime of borders, their significance for public opinion under the influence of political institutions, the practice of cross-border interactions and the international political and economic situation. The dynamism of the system of borders is determined by the increase in their number and length, reflecting the fragmentation of the world political space at all levels, the growing diversity of types of modern polities and the differences between them. In particular, the number of small states and, accordingly, the number of pairs of state borders are multiplied. The limited niche that small countries are forced to occupy in the international division of labor, as a rule, requires a specific regime (high openness) of borders and the delegation of part of sovereignty to other political actors. Large differences between polities, different ratios of kinds and the level of sovereignty results in the diversity and variability of the functional types of borders. Multilevel processes of integration and regionalization provoke an active redistribution of functions between state and other borders. Border issues are inseparable from the increasingly dynamic evolution of territorial identities, in particular, under the influence of international migration. Finally, the dynamism of borders is associated with their use as a tool for managing social and political processes. The configuration, functions and regime of borders, the asymmetry of cross-border flows are both a mirror and a factor of power of neighboring states and regions.

90-106 137
Abstract

The task of this work is to identify the phenomenon of geographical favouritism in parties and electoral systems, which consists in the degree of the tendency of the latter to territorial differentiation. In our opinion, this is a mandatory step towards finding ways to take into account the degree of spatial distortion of the electoral and party systems of public choice, which in the future should enable multiple comparative electoral and geographical studies. Based on the analysis of all existing electoral systems, it is concluded that proportional elements reduce the potential of geographical favoritism of electoral systems, while majoritarian ones, on the contrary, strengthen it. In the article, electoral systems are distributed according to the level of potential geographical favoritism: it turns out to be the highest in majority systems, and the lowest in proportional and intermediate-average systems, respectively, in semiproportional and preferential ones. The effect of geographical favouritism in mixed (compensatory) systems is close to the result in proportional systems with several districts. In non-compensatory systems, it depends on the effect of the majoritarian component. In the work, the elements or properties of electoral systems are divided into two categories: those that strengthen or weaken geographical favouritism. Having estimated the number of certain elements or properties present in a particular electoral legislation, we can conclude about the degree of geographical favouritism of the electoral procedure used in the country. Two variants of calculating the index of geographical favouritism are proposed, which is necessary for comparative electoral-geographical research, since it allows comparing election results without correction for distortions of the regional distribution of votes. The first index is more suitable for analyzing more similar electoral processes, say, several cycles in the same state, and the second is for comparing fundamentally different electoral systems.

КОНТЕКСТ

107–120 170
Abstract

The article is devoted to the typology of potential centers of power of the new world order. It is shown that it is too early to write off classical political-geographical and geopolitical concepts into the archive - in particular, the population, the size of the territory (with its saturation with natural resources), the volume of GDP (including when calculating the purchasing power parities of currencies) still determine the weight of countries on the world stage. Despite the development of institutions of multilateral regulation of international relations and certain successes of some regional integration projects, the place of states in the transforming world order is largely determined by their veto power in the UN Security Council, the arsenal of nuclear weapons, proliferation in the world and the general status of their state language. We have identified a little more than two dozen possible centers of power, grouped into four types: (1) Superpowers of disappeared bipolar world (USA and Russia are the two developed countries with sufficient military and political tools and large-scale population, territory and national economies to demonstrate the obvious claim to the promotion of a new global cultural and ideological project); (2) Giants of the East (China and India in some respects are surpassing the United States and Russia, but yet related to economically developing countries and inferior to the first two, especially India, for foreign weight); (3) Major advanced countries (Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain); (4) Rising regional powers (Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and others). The composition of the types, especially the most numerous fourth, is quite controversial, which is shown in detail in the article. In particular, an explanation is given why states such as Canada, Australia, the Republic of Korea or Bangladesh cannot be considered as possible centers of power of the new world order, even conditionally “second echelon”.

121-144 135
Abstract

The issue of the major actors of the global political and economic development obviously became the central one in the on-going discourse over the perspective global architecture. One cannot disengage that issue from the problem of the nature of the national sovereignty in the perspective world. It is obvious that the desovereignization of the global processes, gradual stripping of the nation-states from the right for sovereignty as well as dismantlement of the state as the form of society organization are the features of the departed historical period. Despite preservation of a number of globalized systems the world returns to the model of a spatial world that ultimately provides for right of the actor for sovereignty. That transformation is stimulated by the trend for geo-economic regionalization that at this point included the military political instruments of competition. That however does not mean that sovereignty as a phenomenon, notion as well as a political practice could be further interpreted within the framework of Westphalian system. Nation states that obviously remain vehicles for national sovereignty no longer enjoy ultimate monopoly exploiting sovereignty as an operational concept. The very notion of sovereignty due to the socio-economic as well as technological transformations of past decades becomes much more complex while merging spatial and trans-spatial components especially considering the fact that globalized segments of the international architecture will remain in place for the foreseeable future despite the geo-economic and geopolitical regionalization. Authors make the conclusion that the return to the «classic» purely spatial basis of the Westphalian system is no longer possible. While generalizing the trends that emerged during the initial phase of the on-going de-globalization try to formulate the major vectors of transformation of the operational substance of sovereignty and the specifics of its manifestation in specific political and geographical environments. The key element of the article is the attempt to outline the issues that are critical for further exploration and analysis of the transformation of the sovereignty. Authors claim that in contrast to current situation when the cornerstone of the sovereignty is the spatial security first of all in the military dimension the future world that would reside upon the principles of civilizational disengagement will demand a more robust approach to the issues of social and socio-cultural environment protection including those that could provide for the limitation of the level of intrusiveness of the globalized informational society into national informational environment.

ИДЕИ И ПРАКТИКА

145-164 172
Abstract

The article contains comparative spatial analysis of the electoral behavior of residents in regions of Russia's neighbor states. Problems of electoral behavior often become the subject of studies. However, the electoral behavior of residents of foreign border regions usually attract less attention. Moreover, spatial analysis is proving to be a promising area in studying the electoral behaviour as it makes it possible to identify patterns and the neighborhood effect and conduct a mathematically sound analysis of phenomena. The authors aim to identify and compare the patterns of electoral behavior in the regions of Russia's neighbor states based on the results of the parliamentary elections in 2007-2020, using the methods and tools of spatial analysis. By means of a specially developed comparative digital two-dimensional matrix reflecting the positions of political parties, a number of cartograms showing the distribution of votes for similar political forces in each electoral cycle were created, which made it possible to identify general trends in the transformation of electoral behavior in the regions of states bordering Russia. The article reveals a significant differentiation in electoral areas in terms of support for anti-Russian and pro-Russian parties in the period under review. At the same time, a dynamic comparison of the electoral results of parties during several electoral cycles showed that diversity decreased after 2014. In addition, indicators of spatial dependence show the similarity of political preferences of residents of neighboring regions. Moreover, the stability of many identified territorial clusters over time was revealed.

165-184 203
Abstract

The article examines the level of influence of the spatial characteristics of the candidate on the voting results. The author seeks to answer three questions: do «local» candidates have advantages? What determines the propensity of voters to vote for «local» politicians? What is the magnitude of the «friends and neighbors» effect on the election results? It is shown that candidates, as a rule, receive more votes in their «home» towns (districts). The author notes that most of the studies are based on electoral data for the United States and European countries. The number of papers devoted to understanding the spatial attributes of candidates in elections in Russia is limited. A geographical factor such as the «friends and neighbors» voting was chosen as the conceptual basis of the study. To answer the research questions, the author analyzed the data collected during the online survey. The article compared the results of «local» candidates in direct gubernatorial elections, which they received at the regional level, with the votes of voters in the «home» district. Based on the results of the study, the author came to the conclusion that voters tend to electorally support «local» candidates. The results show that voters with a more pronounced local identity are more concerned about the spatial attributes of candidates. The article notes that the tendency to vote for «local» candidates for deputies depends on the level of organization of elections: support for «local» candidates is more pronounced in municipal elections/ The author emphasizes that the «friends and neighbors» voting gives «local» candidates 4,92% of the vote.

185-206 170
Abstract

Actual problems of the geostrategic territories' demographic development are remaining a serious challenge for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. Demographic contraction, a drop in the birth rate and an outflow of the population lead to depopulation and desertification of key regions and hinder effective development and economic activity. Solving the most complex problems related to issues of spatial development requires the use of new theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of demographic processes in the territorial context, as well as modern tools for spatial analysis. The article deals with the current demographic problems of the geostrategic and border areas of Russian Federation through the prism of spatial demography, a scientific direction that is practically not represented in Russia. The main attention of the authors is paid to the study of definitions and methodological apparatus of spatial demography in foreign science. Differences in the subject of research between population geography, regional demography and spatial demography are considered. The author's definition of spatial demography, its subject and research approaches are formulated. The authors propose an alternative approach to the study of the problems of the demographic development of the territory, using methods of spatial analysis (including cartographic materials and GIS models). The paper presents both the theoretical aspects of the concept of «spatial demography» and the assessment of the current demographic situation of the geostrategic regions of the country based on the proposed methodology and mapping of key trends in the demographic development of Russia's geostrategic territories. The authors paid special attention to the study of demographic trends in the municipalities of the geostrategic territories of Siberia and the Far East in the context of their special geographical and resource potential, as well as the complexity of the demographic situation.

РАКУРСЫ

207-239 145
Abstract

The article reveals the problems of the influence of ethno-territorial factors on electoral behavior in the Baltic states. Particular attention is paid to the issues of settlement, the formation of local ethnicities and the related effects of ethnic voting, changes, and sustainability of electoral preferences. The article analyzes a vast array of statistical data on the ethnic structure of individual administrative units of the Baltic states, on the results of elections and the development of ethno-political processes in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Based on formalized criteria, an initial working typology of ethnicities is proposed with their division into perfect, imperfect and areas of relative ethnic parity. Considerable attention is paid to revealing the assumption about the uneven manifestation of ethnic voting, even in ethnic groups close in their ethno-demographic characteristics. As the analysis deepens and checks the initial provisions on the longevity of ethnicities, the stability and volatility of electoral preferences, the correlation between ethnic settlement and ethnic voting, the authors come to clarify the working typology by ranking the Baltic ethnicities according to the influence of ethno-territorial factors on electoral processes. Based on the study of individual practices of political subjects in the development of ethnic localities, an attempt was made to schematize the foundations of the ethno-territorial differentiation of the Baltic states. In conclusion, the essence of the uneven influence of ethno-territorial factors is revealed, a refined typology of ethnicities in the Baltic states is proposed, considering several indicators.

240-261 127
Abstract

In the article, the authors refer to the phenomenon of localism as one of the manifestations of the process of fragmentation of the political space, one of the important features of the cultural and political dynamics in the modern world. In Europe, this is manifested in a noticeable increase in the importance of local political movements, which is partly due to the dynamics of the world economy, the visible manifestations of which determine the political choice and behavior of various social actors. Stagnation in the economy, increasing social differentiation and polarization, and the erosion of the middle class are causing voter disappointment in «historical» political parties, volatility in the party structure and voter preferences. In this study, the authors study the recent experience of one of the post-socialist countries - Lithuania. As a result of the reform of the electoral legislation since 2015, non-partisan lists of local residents - public electoral committees (PEC) - were admitted to the municipal elections in Lithuania. An important feature of PEC is their short life cycle, they cease to exist with the end of the election campaign. The authors analyzed the key positions declared in the election programs of 113 PEC in the municipal elections in 2015 and 2019. The geography of PEC participation and support is expanding. In 2019, they were represented in 47 local governments and collectively received 27.8% of the vote, more than any other party. Large cities turned out to be the most receptive to the innovative institution of the electoral process. The key factors influencing the success of the PEC are the degree of fragmentation of the electoral space of the municipality, the presence of a strong leader at the head of the list, running in parallel for the post of mayor. The case of Lithuania showed an increase of support for local political movements in Europe due to the overflow of voters from national parties. However, institutional constraints (short life cycle, lack of access to higher decision-making levels) reduce the potential of local movements to overcome local problems. Thus, in the competition of political agents of different scales with opposite trends in electoral support a new conflict for the political dynamics of modern Europe is born.

С КНИЖНОЙ ПОЛКИ

ПЕРВАЯ СТЕПЕНЬ

262-281 113
Abstract

Small states constitute a special analytical category in political science, political geography and the theory of international relations, even though the term is not universally agreed-upon, and its conceptualization depends on the aim of a particular study. Broadly speaking, small states are those countries that lack various kinds of resources and occupy a peripheral position in the system of international relations. There are many ways to conceptualize small states that take into account both quantitative and qualitative criteria, but it is with the relativistic approach that the context of the relationship between states and their dyadic links within the framework of the system of international relations is taken into account. Spatial statistical analysis and the factor of the neighborhood enable a relativistic conceptualization of small states more objectively and universally, since they take into account all dyadic connections between neighboring states. To achieve the aim of the study, composite indicator of national capability demonstrating “hard power” and spatial lag are employed to determine the range of states potentially experiencing significant influence from their immediate neighbors. The main limitations of the study is omittance of isolated island states that do not have immediate neighbors, whose potential influence is different, as well as lack of “soft power” factors, with the help of which small states occupy a certain niche in international relations. Such a method of conceptualization allows scholars to take a fresh look at the term «small states» for further research of this analytical category.

282-299 135
Abstract

The article presents an overview of the studies of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and highlights their typology on several grounds. Many works can be combined according to the criterion of the existing date of foundation of NGOs and the beginning of their registration as an official institution - before and after 1945. The territorial and activity criterion determines the research of three types of NGOs: in specific countries; in countries where organizations operate without registration; international NGOs. The approach to subjectivity and objectivity divides studies into those that describe the independence and influence of NGOs and those that reveal their instrumentality and use as an agent of «soft power». Vedder's functional system of NGOs made it possible to identify studies on organizations that solve specific problems, as well as work in the field of changing opinions and attitudes on specific issues. Based on the thematic focus of NGO activities, it is proposed to single out groups of studies according to the degree of relevance of the socio-political agenda. In general, it is worth noting the growing attention of researchers to the problems of the work of nongovernmental organizations, which are becoming a noticeable subject of political processes at both the state and international levels.



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ISSN 1998-1775 (Print)